NEW STOCK I Might Buy in September‼️🤫

SUMMARY

Jeremy Lefebvre discusses his interest in potentially adding LVMH and another unnamed stock to his portfolio, analyzing the company's valuation and long-term growth potential. He also reacts to market predictions from Tom Lee and Dan Niles, offering his perspectives on generational market trends, Nvidia's valuation, and the influence of easy money on the stock market.

MAIN POINTS

• Jeremy expresses interest in potentially buying LVMH and another stock in September, marking a rare decision to add new stocks. [0:23]
• LVMH is highlighted as a conglomerate of high-end brands, including Louis Vuitton, Tiffany, Sephora, and several luxury liquor brands. [2:30]
• Jeremy analyzes LVMH's valuation, noting its forward P/E in the 20s and its potential for long-term growth despite recent underperformance. [3:43]
• Jeremy shares his projections for LVMH, including a bear case, base case, and bull case, illustrating potential future growth scenarios. [5:54]
• Jeremy reacts to Tom Lee's market predictions tied to generational demographics, expressing skepticism about the theory but agreeing with certain points on investor behavior. [10:48]
• Dan Niles critiques Nvidia's data center revenue miss, claiming the market is driven by easy money, a point Jeremy partially refutes by defending Nvidia's valuation. [26:51]
• Jeremy discusses early-stage AI investment skepticism, noting that significant returns on investment may take time, especially for companies in the sector. [30:32]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

In his latest discussion, Jeremy Lefebvre presents an in-depth look at a new stock he is considering for his portfolio, LVMH, and briefly mentions another potential addition. He highlights the rarity of adding multiple new stocks in a single month, indicating deliberate research behind these decisions. LVMH, a conglomerate of high-end brands such as Louis Vuitton, Tiffany, and Sephora, has captured Jeremy’s attention due to its strong brand portfolio and relatively moderate valuation.

Despite its recent underperformance in the market, Jeremy sees significant long-term potential, especially as the company rebounds from a downturn in its business cycle.

Jeremy conducted detailed projections for LVMH, outlining three scenarios: bear, base, and bull cases. In the bear case, LVMH would face mid-single-digit revenue and net income growth, resulting in modest returns for investors. The base case, which Jeremy deems most realistic, involves 10% annual revenue growth and 15% net income growth from 2026 to 2029, leading to compelling compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 15%-20%.

In the bull case, aggressive revenue and net income growth could see the stock achieve a CAGR of 32%-41%, with valuations potentially reaching $2,300 per share by 2029. Jeremy also notes the likelihood of LVMH engaging in share buybacks, which could further enhance returns.

In addition to his analysis of LVMH, Jeremy reacts to insights from market analysts Tom Lee and Dan Niles. Tom Lee’s theory tying generational demographics to market cycles sparks mixed reactions from Jeremy. While he dismisses the idea of generational tops as a major market driver, he agrees with Lee’s observations on older investors’ skepticism and younger generations’ spending power fueling economic activity.

Jeremy connects this skepticism to the lingering impact of past financial crises, such as the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession, which left psychological scars on many investors.

Jeremy also addresses Dan Niles’ critique of Nvidia’s recent performance, particularly its data center revenue miss. While Niles argues that the market is overly reliant on easy money, Jeremy defends Nvidia, emphasizing its strong revenue and earnings growth relative to its valuation. He points out that Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio, approximately double the market average, is justified by its superior growth metrics.

Jeremy believes Nvidia remains a solid investment as long as its growth trajectory continues, projecting potential challenges only in 2027 or 2028 if growth slows significantly.

The discussion shifts to the broader implications of AI investment, with Jeremy noting that skepticism around AI’s immediate returns is expected given the nascent stage of the technology. He cautions against dismissing AI outright, emphasizing that early adoption often involves high costs before yielding substantial returns. Jeremy sees parallels between the current AI landscape and past technological shifts, where long-term winners emerged despite initial uncertainty.

Concluding his analysis, Jeremy underscores the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective when investing. He advises against being deterred by market corrections or crashes, framing them as the cost of doing business in the financial markets. Jeremy highlights his own experience entering the stock market during the 2008 financial crisis, when skepticism was rampant but opportunities for growth were abundant.

This mindset aligns with his investment philosophy of focusing on long-term value creation rather than short-term market fluctuations.

LINKS

• Patreon sale link for Jeremy Lefebvre's course and portfolio access
• Application link to Jeremy's Private Group and access to 1000xStocks
• Jeremy Lefebvre's Patreon account for stock buying/selling updates
• Jeremy's free 5-day workshop on becoming a great investor
• Free workshop on identifying 10X stocks

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