Factors That Could Influence the Midterms

SUMMARY

Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris discuss the potential impact of economic indicators, campaign financing, and voter perceptions on the forthcoming U.S. midterm elections. Their conversation covers polling data, historical trends, and the influence of high-profile spending on electoral outcomes.

MAIN POINTS

• A significant drop in gasoline prices could marginally improve a president's approval rating but is unlikely to dramatically alter election outcomes. [1:01]
• Despite improvements in inflation and gas prices, public approval for President Biden on economic issues did not fully recover, indicating a lag in voter sentiment. [2:00]
• Statistical models suggest Democrats are strongly favored to take the House and have a substantial chance to win back the Senate, pointing to a potential 'blue wave' election. [4:00]
• Unpredictable events, such as a senator changing party affiliation, introduce uncertainties that are difficult to quantify in election forecasting. [6:01]
• Campaign spending, especially in primaries, can significantly influence outcomes, with billionaire contributions having a measurable impact on close races. [8:00]
• While partisan identities reduce the effect of money in general elections, large-scale spending by wealthy individuals remains a significant factor in U.S. politics. [9:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The discussion centers on how various factors could influence the outcome of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, with a particular focus on economic indicators and campaign financing. A hypothetical scenario is considered in which gasoline prices fall sharply before the election, potentially boosting the incumbent president's approval rating by one or two points. However, historical data from the Biden administration suggests that improvements in inflation and gas prices do not immediately translate into higher approval ratings, as public sentiment often lags behind economic recovery.

This lag is attributed to the lasting negative impressions formed during periods of economic pain, which voters tend to remember even after conditions improve.

The conversation then shifts to statistical modeling of election outcomes. Backtesting of forecasting models indicates that Democrats are currently heavily favored to regain control of the House, with an estimated 85-87% chance, and have a realistic opportunity to win back the Senate. This contrasts with the 2018 midterms, where Democrats had little chance to take the Senate due to unfavorable electoral maps.

The analysts also acknowledge the potential for unpredictable events, such as a senator switching party affiliation, which could dramatically alter the balance of power but are difficult to model statistically.

Campaign financing emerges as another critical factor, particularly in primary elections where partisan cues are weaker and voters rely more on advertising and exposure. The example of Michigan's primary, where heavy spending did not appear to change the outcome, is discussed, but it is noted that, in general, significant financial investment can sway results, especially when there is no equivalent counter-spending. In general elections, the effect of money is somewhat diminished by strong partisan identities, but the influence of billionaire donors remains a concern, as large sums can still shift outcomes in closely contested races.

The Supreme Court's reluctance to address the issue of campaign finance is highlighted as an ongoing challenge for the integrity of the electoral process.

LINKS

• G. Elliott Morris's website with political analysis and polling data.
• Subscription page for Paul Krugman's Substack newsletter.
• Paul Krugman's profile on Bluesky social network.

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