Trump "Regret" in the Polls

SUMMARY

Paul Krugman, joined by G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, discusses the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, focusing on voter regret, shifting economic perceptions, and the impact of media narratives. The conversation explores polling data, the psychology of low-information voters, and the cyclical nature of political dissatisfaction in America.

MAIN POINTS

• Anecdotal evidence and polling suggest a notable minority of former Trump voters express regret over their 2024 vote. [1:01]
• Polls indicate that up to 20% of Trump’s 2024 voters report regret, a potentially significant factor for Republican electoral prospects. [3:00]
• Recent surveys show a convergence between negative perceptions of the national and local economies, with Republican approval of Trump’s economic performance at historic lows. [5:00]
• Media and pundit narratives exaggerated the scale of Trump’s 2024 victory, misrepresenting a narrow win as a transformative event. [9:00]
• Persistent economic dissatisfaction and anti-incumbency sentiment drive calls for major political change, with most voters expressing negativity about the status quo. [13:00]
• Low-information and low-engagement voters, who often decide elections, are now expressing disappointment with unmet expectations and may shift their support accordingly. [15:01]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The discussion opens with the question of whether Donald Trump is facing electoral consequences for failing to deliver on his prominent campaign promises from 2024. While hard quantitative data is lacking, anecdotal evidence from voter interviews and recent polling suggests a significant undercurrent of regret among former Trump supporters. Notably, a Navigator Research poll from September reports that approximately 20% of Trump’s 2024 voters express regret over their decision, a figure that, if it translates into lost votes, could have substantial implications for Republican prospects in future elections.

Even a modest erosion of support—such as 4-5%—could shift the electoral landscape dramatically, potentially resulting in a decisive defeat reminiscent of historical landslides.

The conversation then turns to economic perceptions, highlighting a shift observed in recent AP-NORC polling. Throughout the Biden administration, a consistent gap existed between negative views of the national economy and more positive assessments of local economic conditions. However, this gap has now closed, with widespread dissatisfaction prevailing at both levels.

This convergence is accompanied by a record low approval rating for Trump’s economic management among Republicans, indicating that economic hardship and inflation have eroded confidence even within his base. The panel suggests that inflation has disproportionately affected middle America, particularly Republican-leaning demographics, contributing to a broader sense of disillusionment.

A critical theme is the misinterpretation of the 2024 election’s significance by the media and political commentators. Despite Trump’s narrow margin of victory—just 1.5 percentage points—many in the pundit class portrayed the outcome as a seismic shift in American politics. The panel attributes this to a tendency among journalists and commentators to amplify narratives for dramatic effect and to appear insightful, often drawing sweeping conclusions from limited data.

This pattern, they argue, led to an overstatement of Trump’s mandate and obscured the reality that the election was closely contested rather than a decisive realignment.

The discussion also addresses the cyclical nature of political dissatisfaction in the United States. Survey data consistently show that a majority of voters—around 55%—believe that major disruptive changes are needed in the nation’s political system and economy, while only a small minority report satisfaction with current conditions. This pervasive negativity fuels anti-incumbency sentiment, with voters inclined to punish whichever party holds power.

The panel notes that low-information and low-engagement voters, who often lack detailed knowledge of political dynamics, play a pivotal role in determining electoral outcomes. These voters frequently base their decisions on general impressions or memories of better times, leading to cycles of support and subsequent disappointment when expectations are unmet. The expectation is that future Democratic administrations may face similar backlash, as structural challenges and public discontent persist regardless of party control.

LINKS

• Strength in Numbers project by G. Elliott Morris
• The Downballot podcast and analysis site
• Subscription page for Paul Krugman's Substack
• Paul Krugman's Bluesky social profile

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