STOCKS HAVE AN UGLY DAY, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja and guest analyst Jason provided an in-depth review of a turbulent trading session marked by sharp declines across major indices and sectors, with particular focus on the impact of surging bond yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The episode included detailed technical analysis of leading stocks and ETFs, as well as discussion of macroeconomic drivers, regulatory updates, and upcoming earnings catalysts.

MAIN POINTS

• Major indices and high-profile stocks experienced sharp declines, with semiconductors and hyperscalers hit hardest. [1:30]
• The SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, giving Bitcoin a modest boost despite overall market weakness. [6:01]
• Meta Platforms faced the start of a significant federal trial over alleged addictive design practices, with potential damages debated between $200 billion and $1.4 trillion. [10:02]
• Bond yields in the US and Japan reached multi-year highs, contributing to equity market volatility and raising concerns about the cost of capital. [16:02]
• Sam Altman announced a pause in OpenAI's frontier model training, sparking debate over whether this was due to safety concerns or compute limitations. [21:00]
• Technical Tuesday segment began with Jason joining to provide technical analysis on major indices and stocks. [25:01]
• Technical analysis of the S&P 500 suggested a pullback to the 750–740 range could present a buying opportunity if support holds. [31:01]
• Analysis of QQQ indicated ongoing consolidation, with a bullish setup possible if support levels are maintained. [41:01]
• Meta's stock was identified as being at support but facing significant headline risk from its ongoing trial, with deeper pullbacks seen as potential long-term buying opportunities. [43:02]
• Nebius and Micron were both evaluated as approaching key support levels, with technical setups suggesting possible rebounds if buyers emerge. [54:01]
• Broadcom was highlighted as a tactical buy near support, with the VMware hack seen as a short-term sentiment driver ahead of earnings. [1:02:00]
• Nvidia and Coreweave were both assessed as nearing technical support, with further downside possible before a potential recovery. [1:09:01]
• Intel and Bloom Energy were found to be at or near support, with the potential for short-term bounces if market sentiment improves. [1:16:01]
• AMD's repeated tests of support raised concerns about a possible breakdown, while Rocket Lab was seen as consolidating within a defined range. [1:22:02]
• Google was viewed as in late-stage accumulation, with technicals suggesting a constructive setup for long-term investors. [1:29:00]
• Marvell and Robinhood were both consolidating near support, with Robinhood's lack of recent upside attributed to regulatory and growth uncertainties. [1:34:01]
• SpaceX and SMCI were both at resistance or support, with the potential for further consolidation or pullbacks depending on upcoming catalysts. [1:46:01]
• SoFi and Reddit were identified as consolidating, with SoFi's sensitivity to rates noted and Reddit seen as at a technical inflection point. [1:51:02]
• Market participants discussed the possibility of a deeper market correction, with October identified as a potential bottoming period. [1:54:00]
• The importance of risk management was emphasized, using the example of a fund manager's leveraged trades in flex options and the dangers of overextending on dip buys. [1:59:00]
• AS and Zeta were analyzed for support and resistance levels, with both stocks seen as dependent on broader market risk sentiment. [2:03:02]
• Amazon and SanDisk were both expected to pull back to support after recent earnings-driven rallies, with technical setups favoring patient dip buying. [2:10:02]
• Palantir and Tesla were both reviewed, with Palantir facing resistance and Tesla identified as a potential swing trade candidate if support holds. [2:17:01]
• Cerebras and AppLovin were discussed, with Cerebras at support and AppLovin seen as vulnerable to further downside. [2:24:00]
• Microsoft and Fastly were both expected to pull back to support after strong runs, with consolidation likely before any renewed uptrend. [2:28:01]
• Coinbase and other crypto-related stocks were under pressure, with technicals suggesting further downside risk despite some macro arguments for Bitcoin stability. [2:32:01]
• Corning and LDOS (Leidos) were reviewed, with both stocks at or near support and potential for long-term accumulation. [2:37:02]
• Uber was highlighted as building a strong support base, with expectations of a move toward $90 in the coming months. [2:42:01]
• Photonics and optics names like AOI and Lumentum were analyzed, with both at resistance and expected to pull back before any renewed upside. [2:49:01]
• Gold and gold miners were identified as technically toppy, with a pullback to $380 on GLD anticipated and miners facing headwinds from high oil prices. [2:58:00]
• The episode concluded with an invitation to Jason's upcoming technical analysis webinar and a discussion of the importance of systematic trading approaches. [3:05:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session was marked by a broad-based selloff across equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both experiencing notable declines. The downturn was attributed primarily to a sharp rise in bond yields, with the US 10-year yield climbing to 4.7%, a level not seen since April 2025, and Japanese 30-year yields reaching historical highs. This surge in yields raised concerns about the cost of capital for both governments and corporations, particularly hyperscalers that have become significant issuers of long-term debt.

The market reaction was exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, including uncertainty over US-Iran relations and ongoing military and economic pressures, which contributed to a spike in oil prices above $84 per barrel.

Semiconductor stocks were among the hardest hit, with names like Broadcom, Micron, and Nebius suffering declines of 7–10%. The selloff extended to other high-beta momentum names, many of which had recently experienced strong rallies. Despite the weakness, some investors saw opportunities in large-cap semis, with Broadcom highlighted as a tactical buy near $377 after a 15% decline from recent highs.

The consensus was that high-beta names could see further downside if bond yields remain elevated, but that large-cap stocks might offer more resilient entry points.

A significant regulatory development came from the SEC, which proposed a new framework for certain crypto assets. While the Clarity Act was not officially passed, the SEC's proposed rules aimed to address long-standing barriers to capital formation and innovation in the crypto space. The new guidelines included exemptions from the Securities Act of 1933 and a conditional safe harbor for specific investment contracts, providing the market with some regulatory direction.

Bitcoin responded positively, rising to $64,649, though the overall crypto sector remained under pressure.

Meta Platforms faced a major overhang as a federal trial began in California, with 29 states seeking damages and changes to the company's business practices over alleged addictive design features targeting children. The potential damages ranged from $200 billion to $1.4 trillion, with Meta arguing that it was complying with existing laws and making efforts to protect minors. The trial is expected to last seven weeks, creating sustained headline risk for the stock.

Technical analysis indicated that Meta was at a key support level, but further downside was possible if negative headlines persisted. Historical parallels were drawn to Google's lengthy antitrust trial, suggesting that patience may be required before any recovery.

The episode also covered the emergence of new competitors in the semiconductor space, such as Etched, a startup that raised $700 million at a $21 billion valuation, with significant backing from major venture firms and a workforce including many ex-Nvidia employees. While still much smaller than industry giants, the rapid growth of such startups was seen as bullish for the sector overall, indicating ongoing investment and innovation.

Technical Tuesday featured a comprehensive review of major indices and leading stocks. The S&P 500 was analyzed on multiple timeframes, with a pullback to the 750–740 range identified as a potential buying opportunity if support holds. The QQQ ETF was similarly viewed as consolidating, with a bullish setup possible if resistance at 740 is cleared.

Across individual stocks, the focus was on identifying key support and resistance levels, with an emphasis on risk management and the importance of waiting for confirmation before initiating new positions.

Nebius and Micron were both approaching important support zones, with technical setups suggesting possible rebounds if buyers step in. Broadcom was highlighted as a tactical buy near support, with the VMware hack seen as a short-term sentiment driver ahead of earnings. Nvidia and Coreweave were also assessed as nearing technical support, though further downside was possible before a recovery.

Intel and Bloom Energy were found to be at or near support, with the potential for short-term bounces if sentiment improves.

AMD's repeated tests of support raised concerns about a potential breakdown, while Rocket Lab was seen as consolidating within a defined range. Google was viewed as in late-stage accumulation, with technicals suggesting a constructive setup for long-term investors. Marvell and Robinhood were both consolidating near support, with Robinhood's lack of recent upside attributed to regulatory and growth uncertainties, particularly regarding its reliance on prediction markets and the potential impact of political changes on CFTC oversight.

SpaceX and SMCI were both at resistance or support, with the potential for further consolidation or pullbacks depending on upcoming catalysts such as additional tranches of dilution or earnings reports. SoFi and Reddit were identified as consolidating, with SoFi's sensitivity to interest rates noted and Reddit seen as at a technical inflection point. The discussion included speculation about the possibility of a deeper market correction, with October identified as a potential bottoming period based on historical patterns.

Risk management was emphasized throughout, with the example of a fund manager's leveraged trades in flex options serving as a cautionary tale about the dangers of overextending on dip buys. The importance of maintaining cash reserves and being prepared to buy deeper pullbacks was highlighted, especially in the context of volatile markets and shifting macroeconomic conditions.

AS and Zeta were analyzed for support and resistance levels, with both stocks seen as dependent on broader market risk sentiment. Amazon and SanDisk were both expected to pull back to support after recent earnings-driven rallies, with technical setups favoring patient dip buying. Palantir and Tesla were both reviewed, with Palantir facing resistance and Tesla identified as a potential swing trade candidate if support holds.

Cerebras and AppLovin were discussed, with Cerebras at support and AppLovin seen as vulnerable to further downside. Microsoft and Fastly were both expected to pull back to support after strong runs, with consolidation likely before any renewed uptrend. Coinbase and other crypto-related stocks were under pressure, with technicals suggesting further downside risk despite some macro arguments for Bitcoin stability.

Corning and LDOS (Leidos) were reviewed, with both stocks at or near support and potential for long-term accumulation. Uber was highlighted as building a strong support base, with expectations of a move toward $90 in the coming months. The discussion also touched on the potential impact of robo-taxis on Uber's business, noting that widespread adoption would take time and that Uber remained well-positioned in the near term.

Photonics and optics names like AOI and Lumentum were analyzed, with both at resistance and expected to pull back before any renewed upside. Salesforce and ServiceNow were identified as short-term shorts into support, while Oracle was seen as a potential long on a retest of support. Energy and commodity names such as VG and NEX were discussed in the context of rising oil prices, with VG seen as a long if support holds.

Gold and gold miners were identified as technically toppy, with a pullback to $380 on GLD anticipated and miners facing headwinds from high oil prices. The episode concluded with an invitation to Jason's upcoming technical analysis webinar, emphasizing the value of systematic trading approaches and the importance of combining technical and fundamental analysis for effective decision-making.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's Twitter/X profile for market commentary and updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for in-depth stock and market analysis.
• Free news terminal for real-time market and financial news.
• Jason's Twitter/X profile for technical analysis and trading insights.
• Registration link for Jason's upcoming technical analysis webinar.

KEYWORDS