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SUMMARY
Jeremy Lefebvre examines recent downgrades of major tech stocks Amazon and Microsoft, offering his contrasting perspectives on artificial intelligence investments and market positioning. He also highlights his watchlist for potential stock buys and analyzes key trends in the crypto and equity markets.
MAIN POINTS
- Amazon and Microsoft stocks were downgraded by Redburn, sparking a significant decline in share prices.
- Jeremy critiques the reasoning behind the downgrade, focusing on long-term AI investment returns.
- Jeremy unveils his new stock watchlist, including RH, Cava, and Bath & Body Works, with potential entry points in early 2026.
- Jeremy discusses stocks he plans to continue buying, such as Meta, Amazon, and PayPal, with detailed growth projections.
- He reacts to Tom Lee’s bullish stance on crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, while expressing skepticism about current market narratives.
- Tom Lee introduces new ETFs under the 'Granny Shots' lineup, focusing on small-cap and income-generating investments.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Jeremy Lefebvre begins the discussion by highlighting the recent downgrades of Amazon and Microsoft by Redburn, which shifted their ratings from 'buy' to 'neutral.' The downgrades were attributed to concerns about the economic returns of generative AI investments, which Redburn argues are more capital-intensive and less profitable than the earlier cloud computing era. Jeremy challenges this perspective, arguing that such assumptions on AI margins and returns are speculative and fail to account for the transformative potential of AI over the long term. He stresses that companies like Amazon and Microsoft have a history of investing in new technologies that eventually yield substantial returns, citing Amazon’s success with its AWS unit as a prime example.
Transitioning to his personal stock watchlist, Jeremy shares his plans to potentially invest in RH, Cava, and Bath & Body Works by early 2026. He notes that RH's valuation may decline further due to tax loss harvesting, while Cava presents an opportunity with its projected 20-25% revenue growth. Bath & Body Works caught his attention with its attractive financials, showcasing potential base-case returns of 25-37% CAGR under conservative growth assumptions.
He emphasizes the importance of evaluating long-term fundamentals and maintaining patience in volatile markets.
Jeremy also reviews stocks he intends to continue buying, such as Meta, Amazon, and PayPal. He explains his rationale using detailed growth projections for these companies. For instance, he highlights PayPal’s potential to deliver 21-29% CAGR under base-case scenarios, crediting its strong market position and growth prospects. Similarly, his analysis of Meta underscores its undervaluation and strategic positioning in the tech sector.
The discussion then shifts to the cryptocurrency market, where Jeremy examines Tom Lee’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Tom Lee predicts a near-term bottom for crypto assets and identifies Ethereum as a foundational platform for future innovations, such as tokenization and decentralized finance. However, Jeremy expresses skepticism about these predictions, pointing out the lack of a clear bottoming formation in crypto prices and questioning the characterization of current valuations as a 'generational buying opportunity.' He argues that true generational opportunities occur during severe downturns, citing the 2022 tech stock crash as a prime example.
Finally, Jeremy reviews Tom Lee’s 'Granny Shots' ETFs, which focus on supercycle themes and outperforming stocks. While acknowledging the impressive performance of the ETF over the past year, Jeremy emphasizes the importance of assessing long-term performance through bull and bear markets. He concludes the discussion by reiterating the need for disciplined investment strategies, focusing on fundamentals and future growth potential.
In summary, Jeremy Lefebvre offers a comprehensive analysis of recent stock downgrades, the evolving AI and crypto landscapes, and his strategic investment plans. His insights underscore the importance of long-term thinking and critical evaluation in navigating complex financial markets.
LINKS
- 1000x Black Friday sale sign-up link
- Private Stock Group application link
- Jeremy Lefebvre’s Patreon page
- Free 5-day workshop on becoming a great investor
- How to find 10X Stocks free workshop