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SUMMARY
Paul Krugman hosts G. Elliott Morris and David Nir to discuss the predictive value of primary turnout, polling methodologies, and economic fundamentals in the context of U.S. midterm elections. The conversation explores historical data, polling challenges, and the nuanced relationship between economic sentiment and electoral outcomes.
MAIN POINTS
- A new study examines national primary turnout over a century and finds a strong relationship with the subsequent House popular vote.
- Current metrics suggest Democrats are outperforming previous cycles, with primary turnout indicating a potential blowout compared to polling averages.
- Polling faces persistent challenges due to low response rates and representativeness, with pollsters employing various methods to adjust for bias.
- The only fundamental consistently correlated with midterm outcomes is the president's approval rating, while economic indicators have little predictive power for midterms.
- Widespread economic discontent and anti-incumbent sentiment are influencing voter attitudes, with inflation and gas prices closely tied to presidential approval ratings.
- Recent presidential actions on visible economic policies may explain current midterm dynamics, as public perception is strongly shaped by these stances.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Recent research into primary turnout, aggregating data from all 50 states over more than a century, reveals a robust correlation between national primary participation and the subsequent House popular vote. This approach, which focuses on changes in turnout from one midterm to the next rather than isolated state results, provides a more stable and predictive metric. Current data shows Democrats performing significantly better in primary turnout compared to previous cycles, suggesting a potential double-digit margin in the national House vote, which exceeds the advantage indicated by generic congressional ballot polling.
Despite these promising indicators for Democrats, the reliability of polling remains a concern due to historically low response rates and the difficulty of ensuring representative samples. Pollsters attempt to correct for demographic imbalances using census data, but uncertainty persists, especially regarding partisan composition. To address these issues, predictive modeling is employed to monitor the partisan lean of respondents over time, and so far, no significant bias has been detected in the current cycle.
Simulation of election outcomes based on known polling errors further informs forecasts, but inherent uncertainty remains.
When considering fundamentals, the discussion highlights that, contrary to presidential elections, economic indicators such as GDP growth, disposable income, or employment rates have minimal predictive value for midterm results. The president's approval rating stands out as the only consistent structural factor influencing midterm outcomes, with the party holding the White House typically facing greater losses if it controls more seats. However, the current environment is marked by pervasive economic dissatisfaction and a strong anti-incumbent mood, as evidenced by high percentages of voters reporting hardship from inflation.
Notably, shifts in gas prices closely track changes in presidential approval, underscoring the importance of visible economic factors in shaping public opinion. This dynamic, along with recent presidential policy choices on high-profile issues, may be driving the distinctive trends observed in the present midterm cycle.
LINKS
- Strength in Numbers project by G. Elliott Morris
- The Downballot, a political analysis platform
- Paul Krugman's Substack subscription page
- Paul Krugman's Bluesky social profile