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SUMMARY
Jeremy Lefebvre discusses his recent portfolio moves, including the sale of his Adobe shares due to concerns over future growth and market valuation. He reallocates capital into stocks such as Estee Lauder, Nike, American Express, ServiceNow, Honest, Celsius, and Fubo, emphasizing his outlook on market trends and company fundamentals.
MAIN POINTS
- Estee Lauder surges over 11% after hours following strong earnings and improved outlook.
- Lefebvre highlights the turnaround at Estee Lauder and predicts Nike will be the next major recovery story.
- He reveals the sale of his Adobe shares at a loss, citing doubts about the company's long-term growth prospects.
- Lefebvre compares Adobe's situation to PayPal and Intuit, expressing concerns about stagnation due to AI disruption fears.
- Proceeds from the Adobe sale are invested in American Express, ServiceNow, Honest, Celsius, Fubo, and Nike, each chosen for specific growth or defensive reasons.
- He provides detailed projections for Celsius, emphasizing its strong growth potential compared to Adobe.
- Lefebvre notes that many of his portfolio holdings are near 52-week lows, anticipating a significant rebound in the future.
- He concludes with reminders about his upcoming Patreon sale and cautions against using margin in investing.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Jeremy Lefebvre begins by reflecting on a volatile trading day that ended positively for his portfolio, with notable gains in stocks such as Amazon, AMD, Celsius, ELF, Meta, and Estee Lauder. He outlines three main topics: Estee Lauder's after-hours surge, the rationale behind selling Adobe, and the stocks he purchased with the proceeds. Estee Lauder's performance is attributed to strong year-to-date results, including raised guidance for fiscal 2026, double-digit net sales growth in fragrance, and significant operating income improvements across segments.
The company reported a 5% increase in revenue and a 17% rise in operating income, with cost of sales declining and gross margin expanding to 76.4%. Despite two one-off charges—a restructuring expense and a litigation settlement—Lefebvre grades the quarter as a B+, noting that profitability is increasing substantially if these are excluded. The balance sheet has strengthened, with $3.1 billion in cash and reduced long-term debt, and the company has abandoned merger talks with PU, which Lefebvre views as a positive, allowing Estee Lauder to focus on leveraging its existing brands and social media marketing.
He draws parallels between Estee Lauder's turnaround and Nike's potential for recovery, suggesting that Nike, currently trading in the $40s, could rise to $70 or $80 within a year as sales and profitability rebound. Lefebvre maintains a bullish long-term outlook for both Estee Lauder and ELF, projecting them as major winners over the next decade. He laments not owning more Estee Lauder, given its rapid appreciation from last year's lows.
The core of the video centers on his decision to sell Adobe (ticker: ADBE), accepting a loss of over 20%. Lefebvre explains that his updated projections for Adobe indicate only single-digit revenue and net income growth from 2027 onward, with limited potential for price increases and mounting competitive threats from large language models (LLMs) and AI-driven platforms. He outlines three scenarios: a low-probability bull case with 8% revenue growth and a 20% CAGR, a base case with 6% growth and a 9–10% CAGR, and a bear case with just 2% growth and potential for further valuation compression.
Lefebvre compares Adobe's predicament to PayPal, which, despite strong financials, has suffered from persistent concerns about disruption and now trades at low valuation multiples. He warns that Adobe could face years of stagnation, becoming 'dead money' similar to PayPal, and expresses skepticism that the narrative around AI disruption will dissipate soon. He also references Intuit, which has seen its stock decline sharply despite solid results, due to similar fears about LLMs replacing core products like QuickBooks and TurboTax.
Accepting that losses are part of investing, Lefebvre stresses the importance of reallocating capital to higher-conviction opportunities. With the funds from the Adobe sale, he increases positions in American Express, ServiceNow, Honest, Celsius, Fubo, and Nike. American Express is highlighted for its resilience against AI disruption, strong customer base, and consistent profitability, with a forward P/E of 17 and expectations for double-digit earnings growth.
ServiceNow and Salesforce are viewed as AI beneficiaries, deeply integrated with enterprise clients and positioned to thrive as agentic AI systems become more prevalent. Honest is described as a small-cap turnaround story, with CEO Carla Vernon's leadership credited for restoring financial health and setting the stage for significant profitability gains. Lefebvre projects that Honest, with a market cap of $350 million and $90 million in cash, could see its stock price rise to $10 or higher.
Celsius Holdings is presented as a high-growth opportunity, with Lefebvre's projections indicating a base case of 10% revenue growth and 20% net income growth through 2030, supporting a compounding annual growth rate of 34–40%. Even in a bear case, he expects Celsius to outperform the S&P 500. Fubo is characterized as a speculative play with improving fundamentals, while Nike is seen as a long-term winner with a strong brand and customer loyalty.
Lefebvre mentions that many of his portfolio holdings are trading near 52-week lows, which he interprets as a setup for a substantial rebound, predicting a 'legendary' run when market sentiment shifts.
He concludes by advising against the use of margin, citing the risks involved, and promotes his upcoming Patreon sale for investors seeking educational resources and portfolio insights. Throughout, Lefebvre emphasizes disciplined portfolio management, the inevitability of losses, and the necessity of adapting to changing market narratives, particularly regarding technology disruption.
LINKS
- Patreon 1 day sale signup link (May 25, 2026)
- Application link for Jeremy Lefebvre's Private Stock & Wealth Group
- Support the channel and access weekly buys on Patreon
- Free investing workshops from Jeremy Lefebvre
- Jeremy Lefebvre's Instagram profile
- Jeremy Lefebvre's X (Twitter) profile
- Jeremy Lefebvre's Facebook profile
- Jeremy Lefebvre's personal website
- 1000XStocks Instagram profile
- 1000XStocks X (Twitter) profile