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I Sold it all

Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money

Published 2026.10.30

Watch on YouTube Channel on TubeBite

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Source: YouTube. Summary is AI-generated from the video's captions and may contain errors. It does not represent the views of TubeBite, the creator, or YouTube. Watch the original before relying on anything important.

SUMMARY

Jeremy Lefebvre provides an in-depth analysis of recent tech earnings, focusing on Amazon, Google, Intel, and AMD, while discussing his own portfolio moves. He highlights concerns about rising capital expenditures, shifting profit engines in big tech, and skepticism toward AI industry leaders' regulatory motives.

MAIN POINTS

Major tech stocks like Google and ServiceNow experience their worst trading days, while Amazon and Intel also see significant declines.
Amazon's net product sales growth slows to 2%, raising concerns about consumer weakness and broader economic conditions.
Despite short-term setbacks, Amazon is considered a long-term buy due to its valuation and growth potential in AWS and e-commerce.
Wall Street analysts debate Amazon's massive capital expenditure plans and their impact on future free cash flow and AWS growth.
Comparisons are drawn between Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, focusing on profit margins, business models, and cloud growth rates.
Microsoft's growth projections are evaluated, with the company seen as a solid but less compelling buy compared to Amazon, Google, or Meta.
Intel's poor performance is contrasted with AMD's continued market share gains, with AMD positioned as a long-term winner in semiconductors.
Google's free cash flow is expected to worsen due to increased spending, but the company remains a buy for multi-year investors.
Google Cloud's rapid growth is noted, but AWS remains the dominant player; Alphabet's business model faces normalization and increased competition.
Lefebvre reveals he sold all ServiceNow shares, reallocating funds to Celsius, American Express, and Netflix based on growth and management confidence.
Steve Eisman criticizes AI industry leaders for exaggerating existential risks to influence regulation and protect their business interests.
Lefebvre expresses skepticism toward certain AI CEOs, favoring leaders like Bezos and Lisa Su for their perceived honesty and transparency.

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The session opens with Jeremy Lefebvre highlighting recent volatility in the tech sector, noting strong gains in select holdings like Cheesecake Factory and RH, but significant losses in giants such as Google, ServiceNow, Intel, and Amazon. Google and ServiceNow both experienced their worst trading days, with Google dropping sharply despite Lefebvre having already taken profits on much of his position. ServiceNow and Intel also suffered, with Intel's after-hours decline exceeding 23%.

Amazon's earnings are dissected in detail, revealing net product sales growth of only 2%, a figure Lefebvre describes as alarmingly low and indicative of broader consumer weakness. He attributes this slowdown not solely to Amazon's performance but to a challenging economic environment, referencing rising gas and electricity costs and weak results from other consumer companies. Amazon's net service sales, driven by AWS, rose 19%, and total net sales increased 12%, though this fell short of the company's historical growth range.

Operating expenses were managed effectively, leading to a 61% year-over-year increase in operating income. However, interest expenses surged by 214% due to increased debt for data center expansion, raising concerns about future profitability as capital expenditures continue to climb.

Lefebvre maintains that Amazon remains a core long-term holding, emphasizing its forward price-to-earnings ratio near 19 as a compelling value for investors with multi-year horizons. He argues that Amazon's combination of dominant e-commerce and expanding AWS business justifies its place as a top portfolio position, regardless of short-term market swings. Wall Street commentary is incorporated, with analysts expressing concern over Amazon and Google signaling substantial increases in capital expenditures for 2027 and beyond.

These spending plans are expected to pressure free cash flow, which Lefebvre notes could worsen significantly over the next two years. While AWS's projected 40% growth for 2027 and 2028 is impressive, Lefebvre cautions that such growth is expected given the massive investments being made, and he urges investors to consider both relative and absolute growth figures.

The discussion shifts to Microsoft, where Lefebvre runs bull, base, and bear case scenarios. He projects revenue growth between 12% and 17% depending on the case, with corresponding net income and valuation multiples. While Microsoft is deemed a reasonable buy, it is not as attractive as Amazon, Google, or Meta, primarily due to its lower expected growth rate and the potential for future share dilution to fund capital expenditures.

Turning to semiconductors, Lefebvre is highly critical of Intel, labeling it a "junk company" propped up by government support and sector-wide demand. He contrasts this with AMD, which he credits for sustained market share gains and innovation, positioning AMD as the only credible challenger to Nvidia in the GPU and CPU markets.

Google's situation is analyzed with a focus on its deteriorating free cash flow outlook, driven by escalating capital expenditures. Lefebvre predicts that Google's cash flow will worsen over the next 18 to 24 months before stabilizing. Despite this, he maintains that Alphabet remains a buy for investors with a long-term perspective.

Wall Street analysis of Alphabet's recent quarter highlights strong cloud growth (up 103%) but disappointing search revenue and margins. The narrative of AI-driven disruption is discussed, with concerns about Alphabet's ability to maintain its historical dominance as competition intensifies and its business model normalizes. Google Cloud's rapid growth is acknowledged, but AWS's larger scale is emphasized as a key differentiator.

Lefebvre then details his own portfolio moves, revealing that he sold all his ServiceNow shares after taking profits, reallocating the proceeds into Celsius Holdings, American Express, and Netflix. He explains his preference for Salesforce over ServiceNow, citing greater confidence in Salesforce's CEO and business model, especially as both companies compete in similar markets. The analysis closes with a segment featuring Steve Eisman, who argues that AI industry leaders like Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are exaggerating existential risks to promote regulatory capture and protect their competitive positions.

Eisman characterizes current AI as sophisticated word prediction rather than sentient intelligence and expresses skepticism about the motives of leading AI executives. Lefebvre echoes this skepticism, contrasting his distrust of certain AI leaders with his respect for CEOs like Jeff Bezos and Lisa Su, whom he regards as more transparent and reliable. The video concludes with Lefebvre promoting his upcoming sale and encouraging viewers to take advantage of educational resources and community offerings.

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