MARKETS TRY TO REVERSE, OKLO EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja and technical analyst Jason provided an in-depth review of a turbulent trading day marked by a midday market reversal, Oklo’s earnings, and a comprehensive technical analysis of major stocks. The discussion covered sector rotations, the impact of macroeconomic data, and detailed breakdowns of AI infrastructure, semiconductor, and software names, offering actionable insights for traders and investors.

MAIN POINTS

• Markets open sharply lower, with S&P and major tech names showing significant declines before a midday recovery begins. [1:00]
• Investors debate whether the rebound is a dead cat bounce or a genuine recovery as CPI data comes in higher than expected. [5:00]
• Amit reveals new positions in Corning (GLW) at $195 and Akamai, citing AI infrastructure growth and recent deals as key drivers. [9:01]
• Oracle, SanDisk, and other tech names experience volatile swings, with many recovering from steep intraday losses. [12:00]
• Market closes with most stocks off their lows, while Shopify ends below $100 and Micron closes at $760, down 4%. [15:01]
• Oklo earnings are released after the bell, reporting zero revenue and a loss of $0.18 per share, in line with expectations. [17:01]
• Oklo’s results spark little market reaction, while NextTracker beats on earnings and RedCat announces a $200 million dilution. [20:01]
• Technical Tuesday begins, with Jason joining to provide technical analysis and reflect on recent market events and community meetups. [25:10]
• Jason outlines key technical levels for SPY, emphasizing the importance of a full session close above or below 738 for trend confirmation. [29:00]
• Major indices are compared, with IWM lagging and QQQ showing relative strength; Jason warns of potential further profit-taking in high-flyers. [35:01]
• Corning (GLW) is highlighted for its sideways consolidation and recent multi-billion dollar deals with Meta and Nvidia, suggesting a rerating opportunity. [39:00]
• Discussion shifts to the importance of identifying companies with expanding addressable markets, using Rackspace and memory stocks as examples. [45:03]
• Jason explains the 'magic formula' for stock rerating: price increases, new business lines, marquee customers, and traction in new markets. [50:03]
• Not all software or semiconductor companies are equal; only those enabling broad AI adoption or expanding TAM are likely to rerate. [57:03]
• Nvidia and AMD technical setups are discussed, with Nvidia targeting $230–$260 pre-earnings and AMD’s key levels at $425 and $455. [59:00]
• Nebius is identified as a potential outperformer due to its track record of marquee deals, while covered call strategies are debated for volatile names. [1:04:00]
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) hits technical targets, prompting profit-taking, while Tesla’s next move depends on holding above $415. [1:09:00]
• Micron’s momentum is noted, with potential for rapid moves to $800 and beyond, though Jason prefers less consensus trades for better risk-reward. [1:19:02]
• Palantir (PLTR) remains in a tight consolidation, with support at $115 and resistance at $165; selling puts is suggested for income. [1:25:02]
• CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure names are analyzed, with technical levels and investment theses based on unique offerings and scalability. [1:28:02]
• Hims, Meta, and Microsoft are reviewed, with Meta and Microsoft seen as long-term holds and technical setups for potential trades. [1:36:00]
• UNH breaks out toward $500, while covered call strategies are recommended for range-bound fintech names like SoFi and Robinhood. [1:47:00]
• Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly are compared as CDN leaders, with Akamai singled out for its paradigm-shifting $1.8 billion deal, likely with Anthropic. [2:12:01]
• Rapid-fire technical analysis covers Sandisk, Copen, OSS, and Amazon, highlighting key support and resistance levels for potential trades. [2:30:03]
• Uber and Planet Labs are discussed as potential sleeper longs, while Bitcoin’s technical setup suggests possible pullbacks before a move to new highs. [2:53:02]
• The session concludes with reflections on trading as a business, the importance of community, and upcoming educational opportunities. [3:04:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session on May 12th was marked by significant volatility, with major indices and high-profile stocks experiencing sharp declines in the morning before staging a dramatic midday reversal. The S&P 500, which was down over 1% earlier in the day, recovered to close only slightly negative, reflecting a broader market rebound that saw many technology and AI-related names retrace steep intraday losses. This reversal was attributed to a combination of factors, including algorithmic trading, shifting sentiment around inflation data, and a persistent 'buy the dip' mentality among investors.

The day’s macroeconomic backdrop was dominated by the release of CPI data, which came in at 3.8% versus expectations of 3.6%. While this initially sparked concerns about persistent inflation and rising interest rates, the market’s reaction was notably muted after the initial selloff. Oil prices also rose by 2%, further contributing to early weakness, but both equities and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin managed to recover as the session progressed.

Political developments, including comments from former President Trump regarding Iran and China, were discussed but did not appear to have a lasting impact on market direction.

Amit Kukreja disclosed new positions in Corning (GLW), entering at $195, and Akamai, both of which are viewed as beneficiaries of the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout. Corning’s appeal lies in its recent multi-billion dollar deals with Meta and Nvidia, which significantly expand its total addressable market (TAM) and position it as a key supplier for next-generation data centers. The technical analysis provided by Jason reinforced the bullish outlook for Corning, noting its prolonged consolidation and the potential for a rerating as new contracts are recognized by the market.

Akamai’s role in content delivery and its rumored contract with Anthropic were also highlighted as catalysts for future growth.

The discussion emphasized the importance of identifying companies that are not only participating in the AI and cloud buildout but are also expanding their TAM through new lines of business, marquee customer wins, and pricing power. Jason outlined a 'magic formula' for stock rerating, which includes raising prices due to supply constraints, launching new business lines, securing high-profile customers, and demonstrating traction in these new areas. This framework was applied to several names, including Rackspace, which saw a dramatic rerating following a $1.6 billion deal with AMD, and memory stocks like Micron, which continue to benefit from robust demand and constrained supply.

Not all companies in the AI and software sectors are expected to perform equally. The analysis cautioned against assuming that all software or semiconductor names will benefit from the current cycle, noting that only those enabling broad AI adoption or expanding into new markets are likely to see sustained rerating. ServiceNow, Salesforce, and other enterprise software companies were cited as examples of strong businesses that are currently out of favor due to their lack of direct exposure to the AI infrastructure wave.

Technical setups for major names were discussed in detail. Nvidia is targeting a move to $230–$260 ahead of earnings, with the potential for further upside if it delivers on the key criteria outlined in the magic formula. AMD’s critical levels are identified at $425 and $455, with the potential for a move to $475 or even $528 if momentum persists.

Micron’s rapid ascent to $800 and beyond is seen as possible, though the trade is characterized as momentum-driven rather than fundamentally investable at current levels. Jason expressed a preference for less consensus trades, seeking better risk-reward in names that have not yet fully rerated.

The session also covered a wide range of other stocks, including Rocket Lab, which hit technical targets and prompted profit-taking; Tesla, which is poised for a move to $488 if it can hold above $415; and Palantir, which remains in a tight consolidation with support at $115 and resistance at $165. Covered call strategies were recommended for range-bound fintech names like SoFi and Robinhood, while UNH was highlighted for its breakout toward $500.

A significant portion of the discussion focused on the content delivery network (CDN) space, with Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly compared as industry leaders. Akamai was singled out for its paradigm-shifting $1.8 billion deal, likely with Anthropic, which positions it far ahead of competitors in terms of TAM expansion and execution. Cloudflare and Fastly were noted as facing challenges, with Cloudflare’s new product lines offering lower margins and Fastly struggling to articulate its AI opportunity despite winning new customers.

Rapid-fire technical analysis was provided for a host of additional names, including Sandisk, Copen, OSS, and Amazon, with key support and resistance levels identified for each. The conversation also touched on speculative AI and memory plays such as Penguin Solutions and MRAM, emphasizing the need for thorough due diligence given the rapid price appreciation and uncertain long-term prospects of many of these companies.

The session concluded with a look at Bitcoin, which is consolidating below its 200-day moving average and could see further pullbacks before attempting a move to new highs. The importance of treating trading as a business, maintaining discipline, and leveraging community resources was underscored, with both Amit and Jason encouraging viewers to focus on process, research, and continuous learning. Upcoming educational opportunities and community events were promoted as ways for traders to deepen their understanding and improve their results in an increasingly complex market environment.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's Twitter/X profile for market commentary and updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for in-depth stock analysis and research.
• Link to sign up for the Singapore meetup event.

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