The Next Era of Warfare is Here

SUMMARY

Ed Elson interviews Brian Schimpf, co-founder and CEO of Anduril, on the transformation of the defense industry through artificial intelligence and advanced technology. The discussion covers the ethical, political, and strategic implications of AI-powered defense systems, the evolving global security environment, and the responsibilities of private sector leaders in national security.

MAIN POINTS

• Brian Schimpf recounts the founding of Anduril and the motivation to bring Silicon Valley technology to the defense sector. [2:00]
• The conversation addresses the challenges and criticisms of applying Silicon Valley's fast-paced ethos to the defense industry. [6:00]
• Anduril's technological evolution is detailed, from border surveillance to autonomous drones and advanced military systems. [10:01]
• Schimpf discusses the ethical considerations and business dynamics of profiting from conflict during a period of global instability. [14:01]
• The next era of warfare is explored, focusing on the rise of drones, AI, and long-range strike capabilities. [20:01]
• Debate over the use of AI for lethal autonomous weapons is examined, including historical context and current policy frameworks. [27:00]
• Schimpf reflects on the responsibilities of private sector leaders in shaping and informing national defense policy. [36:00]
• The discussion turns to the implications of government equity stakes in private defense companies and the separation of public and private sectors. [41:00]
• Current US policy on AI and autonomous weapons is analyzed, including the balance between innovation, safety, and accountability. [47:00]
• Schimpf identifies the lack of a new deterrence theory for conventional weapons as a major risk to global stability. [51:00]
• China's rise as a technologically sophisticated and authoritarian superpower is discussed as a central challenge for the US and its allies. [53:01]
• Record-breaking VC investment in defense tech and proposed increases in US defense spending are interpreted as responses to heightened global threats. [1:00:01]
• Schimpf addresses misconceptions about Anduril and the defense industry, emphasizing deterrence and the pursuit of peace through strength. [1:04:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The interview with Brian Schimpf, co-founder and CEO of Anduril, provides a comprehensive examination of the intersection between advanced technology, artificial intelligence, and the evolving landscape of global defense. Anduril was founded in 2017 by a group of technologists, including Palmer Luckey, with the aim of integrating Silicon Valley's technological prowess into the traditionally insular defense sector. At the time, few in the tech industry were willing to engage with defense, viewing it as controversial.

Schimpf and his co-founders saw both a moral imperative and a strategic opportunity: to equip military personnel with superior capabilities and to reinforce deterrence as a means of preventing conflict, rather than encouraging it.

The early years of Anduril were marked by a deliberate attempt to blend the innovative, fast-moving culture of Silicon Valley with the rigor and accountability required in defense. Schimpf rejects the notion that defense must be slow and bureaucratic, but acknowledges that the 'move fast and break things' mentality is not suitable for safety-critical, long-lived systems. Instead, Anduril has focused on rapid yet disciplined engineering, ensuring that products meet stringent reliability and safety standards.

This approach has enabled the company to deliver advanced technologies at a pace uncommon in the sector, earning contracts and trust from major clients such as the Pentagon and allied governments.

Anduril's technological trajectory began with border surveillance systems, leveraging computer vision and sensor fusion to provide real-time situational awareness. The company quickly expanded into counter-drone technologies, autonomous platforms—including underwater vehicles and drones—and, notably, won a contract to develop the Air Force's next-generation autonomous loyal wingman fighter jet. The evolution of Anduril's offerings reflects broader trends in modern warfare: the proliferation of drones, the integration of AI for real-time decision-making, and the increasing complexity of the battlefield.

The company's Lattice software platform exemplifies this shift, networking thousands of sensors and autonomous systems to deliver actionable intelligence and coordinated responses.

The discussion addresses the ethical and business dilemmas inherent in defense technology. Schimpf is candid about the discomfort some feel regarding the alignment of business success with global instability, but frames Anduril's mission as fundamentally about deterrence and stabilization. He points to historical precedents—such as the Pax Americana and the stabilizing role of the US Navy in global trade—as evidence that military strength underpins peace and prosperity.

The proliferation of advanced weaponry, including drones and missiles, has lowered the barriers for state and non-state actors to project force, making deterrence through technological superiority more critical than ever.

A significant portion of the interview is devoted to the policy and ethical debates surrounding AI in warfare. Schimpf notes that lethal autonomous weapons are not new; systems capable of automatic defensive action have existed since the 1970s. The key, he argues, is maintaining human accountability for the use of force, with AI serving to enhance precision and minimize collateral damage.

He contrasts the US and its allies' focus on responsible, accountable deployment of advanced weapons with adversaries who may use less discriminating means. The controversy surrounding companies like Anthropic, which have set boundaries on military applications of their AI, is presented as a legitimate but complex policy debate. Schimpf advocates for technologists to engage deeply with policymakers, ensuring that ethical and operational considerations are fully understood and addressed.

The conversation also explores the shifting geopolitical landscape. Schimpf agrees with assessments that the current era is the most unstable since World War II, citing the rise in regional conflicts, the erosion of US dominance, and the atrophy of allied defense capabilities due to prolonged reliance on American power. The emergence of new technologies has altered the calculus of deterrence, particularly with the advent of long-range strike capabilities that target economic infrastructure as much as military assets.

This has created a 'whole-of-country' defense problem, where nations must defend against unpredictable, distributed threats across vast geographies.

On the question of public and private sector roles, Schimpf is clear that technologists should not make policy; their responsibility is to inform elected officials and provide reliable, effective tools. The potential for government equity stakes in private defense companies is discussed as a means of broadening public participation in wealth creation, though Schimpf emphasizes the importance of maintaining clear boundaries between government authority and private enterprise. He notes that the US has a strong legal tradition of separating governmental powers from private institutions, and sees no evidence that this is changing.

Policy on AI and autonomous weapons is characterized as a work in progress, with the US government balancing procedural discipline with the need for innovation and safety. Schimpf suggests that collaboration between industry and government, with clear roles and accountability, is the most effective way to manage the risks and opportunities of rapidly advancing technology. He highlights the need for a new theory of deterrence for conventional weapons, as the traditional models of mutually assured destruction may not apply to the current environment of lower-intensity, but highly destabilizing, conflicts.

China emerges as a central concern in the discussion. Schimpf distinguishes between China's past focus on economic growth and the current, more authoritarian and interventionist posture under Xi Jinping. He warns that China's systematic climb up the technological value chain, combined with its aggressive international stance, poses a significant challenge to the US-led world order.

The issue is not merely economic competition, but the potential for a global system shaped by autocratic values and limited dissent. Anduril's role, as Schimpf sees it, is to ensure that the US and its allies retain the military capabilities necessary to deter unilateral action by China, particularly in flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The interview concludes with reflections on the surge in venture capital investment in defense technology and the proposed expansion of the US defense budget. Schimpf interprets these trends as responses to a more dangerous world, where adversaries have been quietly investing in military capabilities for years. He acknowledges the perception of Anduril as a controversial company, but reiterates that the company's mission is to prevent conflict through strength, not to profit from war.

The enduring lesson, he argues, is that peace is best secured by preparing for war—a principle that remains relevant in an era of rapid technological and geopolitical change.

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