SEMIS CONTINUE THEIR RUN, OIL UP, HIMS & ASTS EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja provided an in-depth market close analysis, focusing on the continued strength in semiconductor stocks, rising oil prices, and key earnings releases from HIMS and AST SpaceMobile. The session covered market momentum, sector rotations, notable trades, and detailed breakdowns of earnings results and guidance from multiple companies.

MAIN POINTS

• Semiconductor stocks remain strong with Corning, Nvidia, and AMD posting gains, while the S&P 500 hovers near record highs. [1:00]
• Software names like Shopify and Microsoft decline, while notable insider buying occurs in companies such as Nota and Lomentum. [3:02]
• Energy stocks including Bloom Energy and Fluence Energy show momentum, and personal trading anecdotes are shared. [5:00]
• Bloomberg highlights aggressive call option buying in semiconductor and mega-cap tech shares, raising concerns of a crowded trade. [7:00]
• Quantum computing stocks rally following a Google announcement and anticipation of a quantum IPO, boosting related names. [9:00]
• CO2 investment firm projects a fivefold increase in memory demand, fueling bullish sentiment for Micron and the memory sector. [11:01]
• The market closes near all-time highs with Tesla and Rocket Lab leading gains, and attention turns to after-hours earnings. [13:04]
• Plug Power misses on EPS but beats on revenue, while Google and Amazon experience declines after strong post-earnings runs. [15:01]
• HIMS earnings reveal a significant EPS miss and modest revenue growth, causing volatility in after-hours trading. [18:00]
• Archer and Regetti report mixed earnings, with Archer showing its first revenue and Regetti beating on revenue but remaining flat. [20:00]
• ZoomInfo's earnings disappoint, resulting in a sharp stock drop and the announcement of significant layoffs. [23:02]
• Geopolitical tensions escalate as the UAE reportedly strikes Iranian refineries, impacting oil prices after hours. [27:01]
• HIMS guidance projects 29% revenue growth for 2025, but concerns remain over slowing growth and margin compression. [30:01]
• Power Solutions and CleanSpark both report disappointing earnings, leading to substantial after-hours declines. [32:00]
• Institutional 13F filings show increased positions in Meta, Microsoft, and Salesforce, reflecting Q1 buying trends. [39:00]
• Playboy reports revenue growth outpacing HIMS, while the community anticipates AST SpaceMobile's earnings release. [42:00]
• AST SpaceMobile misses on both EPS and revenue, causing the stock to drop sharply and dragging down other space sector names. [43:02]
• AST SpaceMobile outlines its satellite deployment plans, technological advancements, and expanded partnerships in its earnings call. [46:01]
• Market sentiment remains cautious as even positive corporate actions, such as layoffs or reaffirmed guidance, fail to boost stocks. [51:00]
• HIMS attributes its EPS miss to inventory write-downs related to compounding GLP-1s, while Cerebras prepares for a highly anticipated IPO. [57:01]
• GoPro surges after announcing strategic inquiries for a sale or merger, and OpenAI introduces a new cyber defense AI model. [1:01:02]
• Samsung faces a potential chip factory strike that could impact global HBM supply and pricing dynamics in the memory market. [1:05:04]
• Thinking Machines Labs debuts a real-time, multimodal AI interface, backed by significant investment from Jensen Huang. [1:11:00]
• AST SpaceMobile's earnings call details manufacturing progress, satellite deployment, regulatory achievements, and government contracts. [1:14:01]
• Analyst Q&A addresses technical setbacks, launch strategies, and the integration of AI and spectrum management in AST SpaceMobile's satellites. [1:54:00]
• The session concludes with reflections on the muted market response to earnings, a possible Roaring Kitty account hack, and a preview of upcoming market events. [2:09:01]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session was marked by continued strength in semiconductor stocks, with Corning, Nvidia, and AMD maintaining upward momentum. The S&P 500 closed near record highs, buoyed by gains in both the chip and select technology sectors. Notably, Corning surged by 11%, and Nvidia and AMD remained in positive territory despite some intraday volatility.

However, the software sector lagged, with Shopify dropping 7% and Microsoft down slightly, reflecting a rotation out of certain growth names. Insider activity was highlighted by significant open market purchases from executives at Nota and Lomentum, signaling confidence in their respective companies as they prepare for index inclusions.

Energy stocks also attracted attention, with Bloom Energy and Fluence Energy both experiencing notable gains. Bloom Energy, previously shorted by the host, rebounded by 9%, while Fluence Energy rose 4% amid speculation of it becoming a 'Bloom Energy 2.0.' The energy sector's momentum was further supported by a 3% rise in oil prices, attributed in part to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports surfaced of the UAE conducting strikes on Iranian refineries, prompting concerns about supply disruptions and contributing to after-hours oil price increases.

Bloomberg's analysis underscored the impact of aggressive call option buying in semiconductor and mega-cap tech shares, which has helped suppress volatility and keep the S&P 500 elevated. However, analysts cautioned that the trade has become increasingly crowded, with extreme bullish positioning in AI and chip stocks such as Nvidia. The risk of a sharp volatility spike looms as options expiration approaches and if AI momentum falters or oil prices continue to climb.

Quantum computing stocks experienced renewed enthusiasm following a Google announcement about applying quantum science and AI to life sciences, as well as anticipation of the upcoming Quantinuum IPO. This excitement spilled over into related names such as IonQ and D-Wave, both of which saw positive price action. The sector's momentum was further reinforced by a blog post from Google and recent strong earnings from IonQ.

A significant thematic development came from CO2, a major investment firm, which released a video projecting that memory demand could increase fivefold in the coming years. This bullish outlook for the memory sector, particularly for companies like Micron, was supported by ongoing interviews and industry commentary. The discussion emphasized the transition from AI's compute-centric phase to an agentic era where long-term memory and storage become critical, with high-bandwidth memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND each playing distinct roles in AI system architectures.

As the market closed, attention shifted to a series of key earnings releases. Plug Power reported a substantial EPS miss but beat on revenue, with year-over-year revenue growth of 22%. Despite the revenue beat, the stock declined after hours due to the magnitude of the EPS shortfall. Google and Amazon both experienced declines after strong post-earnings runs, reflecting broader market caution.

HIMS, a consumer health platform, delivered a disappointing earnings report. The company missed EPS expectations by a wide margin, reporting a loss of $0.40 per share versus an expected profit of $0.03. Revenue growth was modest at 4% year-over-year, and gross margins declined from 73% to 65%.

Adjusted EBITDA also fell sharply, and guidance for the full year projected 29% revenue growth, down from the prior year's 65% growth rate. The company attributed the EPS miss to inventory write-downs related to compounding GLP-1s, but the market remained unimpressed, sending the stock down as much as 11% after hours. HIMS management maintained that growth would accelerate in subsequent quarters, with a long-term target of $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030, but near-term margin compression and decelerating growth raised concerns among investors.

Archer and Regetti, both in emerging technology sectors, reported mixed results. Archer posted its first revenue of $1.6 million, up from zero the previous year, but missed on EPS. Regetti beat on revenue but remained flat after hours. ZoomInfo, a SaaS lead generation platform, saw its stock plummet by over 20% following disappointing earnings and the announcement of 20% layoffs, highlighting ongoing challenges in the software sector.

The space sector was in focus with AST SpaceMobile's anticipated earnings. The company ultimately missed both EPS and revenue expectations, reporting a loss of $0.66 per share versus an expected loss of $0.20 and revenue of $14 million versus $36 million expected. Despite a nearly 2,000% year-over-year increase in revenue due to a low base, the magnitude of the miss led to a sharp after-hours decline of around 11%.

The earnings call detailed AST SpaceMobile's progress in satellite manufacturing, with over 30 satellites in advanced production and plans to launch up to 45 by year-end. The company emphasized its vertically integrated manufacturing strategy, proprietary ASIC development, and partnerships with major mobile network operators such as AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and others. Regulatory achievements included FCC authorization for commercial operations in the US and a robust patent portfolio.

However, the lack of blockbuster announcements and the absence of new major contracts or technological breakthroughs left investors underwhelmed, especially in comparison to Rocket Lab's recent surge following a series of positive developments.

Geopolitical developments continued to influence market sentiment, with the UAE's reported strikes on Iranian infrastructure and the potential for a prolonged Samsung chip factory strike in South Korea. The latter could impact global HBM supply and pricing, potentially benefiting memory manufacturers with increased pricing power.

Elsewhere, GoPro surged after announcing it had received unsolicited strategic inquiries for a sale or merger, while OpenAI introduced Daybreak Frontier AI, a new cyber defense model. Thinking Machines Labs, a startup led by OpenAI's former CTO and backed by Jensen Huang, debuted a real-time, multimodal AI interface designed to enhance human-AI collaboration. The technology enables simultaneous audio, video, and text interactions, positioning the company as a potential leader in next-generation AI interfaces.

The session also covered notable institutional activity, with 13F filings revealing increased positions in Meta, Microsoft, and Salesforce during Q1. The options market saw heavy trading in Micron, Intel, and other semiconductor names, reflecting the ongoing enthusiasm for the sector.

The AST SpaceMobile earnings call included a detailed Q&A session addressing technical setbacks, launch strategies, and the integration of AI and spectrum management in satellite operations. Management reiterated guidance for $150–200 million in 2026 revenue and outlined plans for further satellite launches, government contracts, and commercial deployments. The company highlighted its multi-launcher strategy, manufacturing advancements, and the potential for significant government revenue related to national security programs such as Golden Dome.

Despite the breadth of updates and sector rotations, market sentiment remained cautious. Even positive corporate actions, such as layoffs or reaffirmed guidance, failed to generate sustained rallies, indicating a selective and risk-averse environment. The session concluded with reflections on the muted response to earnings, the possible hacking of Roaring Kitty's account (which briefly impacted GameStop), and a preview of upcoming market events, including the highly anticipated Cerebras IPO and further quantum computing developments.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's Twitter/X profile for market commentary and updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for detailed stock and sector analysis.
• Eventbrite page for Amit's community meet-up in Singapore.

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