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SUMMARY
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, provides a detailed price target analysis for The Trade Desk stock, projecting potential recovery and growth by the end of 2026. He evaluates current market sentiment, competitive threats, and valuation metrics to support his bullish outlook.
MAIN POINTS
- The Trade Desk stock remains down nearly 40% in 2026 despite a recent rebound from its lows.
- Analysts estimate The Trade Desk will achieve $2.38 in earnings per share for fiscal year 2027, with the stock currently trading at a low forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.
- Scenario analysis suggests share prices could range from $24 to $45 by year-end depending on changes in the forward PE multiple.
- The most likely scenario is a share price between $31 and $38, representing up to 46% upside from the current price of $23.
- Competitive threats from Amazon and others are significant, but the current valuation presents a potential opportunity for investors.
- Tatevosian emphasizes his professional background and encourages viewers to seek qualified financial analysis and consider joining his channel for further insights.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
The Trade Desk has experienced a substantial decline in its stock price, remaining nearly 40% lower in 2026 despite a modest recovery from its lowest levels. Market sentiment is heavily influenced by concerns over increasing competition, particularly from Amazon and Roku, which has led to the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of just 10. This valuation is typically reserved for mature companies with little to no growth prospects, such as Verizon or AT&T, yet The Trade Desk operates in a sector that is still evolving and expanding.
Analyst consensus projects earnings per share of $2.38 for fiscal year 2027. Using this figure, a scenario analysis reveals that if the forward PE remains at 10, the share price could reach $24 by year-end, offering minimal upside from the current $23. However, if investor sentiment improves and the forward PE increases to 13 or 16, the share price could rise to $31 or $38, respectively.
In a more optimistic scenario with a forward PE of 19, the stock could recover to $45, the price at which Tatevosian initially invested. The most probable outcome is a share price between $31 and $38, representing up to a 46% increase from current levels. Despite the competitive risks, Tatevosian ranks The Trade Desk among his top 15 stock picks, citing the attractive valuation and potential for significant upside.
He intends to monitor revenue growth, margins, and management's response to competition closely throughout the year, remaining open to increasing his position if the stock does not rebound significantly.
LINKS
- YouTube channel membership for exclusive perks and early access.
- Parkev Tatevosian's book on a six-step investing framework.
- Fiscal.ai investment research platform with a discount for viewers.
- Subscribe to Parkev Tatevosian's free monthly newsletter on Substack.