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SUMMARY
Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris analyze recent polling data showing Donald Trump’s approval ratings at record lows, drawing comparisons to some of the most unpopular periods in modern presidential history. Their discussion explores the impact of political polarization, issue-based approval trends, and the evolving attitudes of Republican subgroups.
MAIN POINTS
- Trump’s approval rating has declined further, reaching the low 36% range after the Iran conflict, with disapproval rising to nearly 62%.
- Polling methods now use synthetic approaches to estimate Trump’s approval on specific issues, with frequent data releases on major topics like inflation.
- Trump’s current approval ratings are compared to the lows of Richard Nixon during Watergate and George W. Bush during the Iraq War, highlighting the severity of his unpopularity.
- Political polarization has created a high floor and low ceiling for presidential approval, making it difficult for presidents to gain support from the opposing party.
- Trump and the Republican Party have lost their previous advantage on immigration and deportation issues, now polling even or underwater.
- Trump’s approval among non-MAGA Republicans has significantly declined, contributing to his overall drop in support within the party.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Recent polling data indicates that Donald Trump’s approval ratings have reached unprecedented lows, with his approval hovering in the mid-30% range and disapproval approaching 62%. This decline accelerated following the onset of the Iran conflict in early March, consolidating opposition among previously skeptical or undecided voters. The polling methodology discussed combines direct survey data with synthetic modeling to estimate Trump’s approval on specific issues, such as inflation, even when direct polling is unavailable.
This approach has become increasingly robust as pollsters now frequently release issue-specific data, particularly on high-profile topics.
Historically, Trump’s current approval ratings are notable for their proximity to the lowest points recorded by modern presidents, such as Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal and George W. Bush during the Iraq War. Despite the heightened political polarization of recent decades, which typically insulates presidents from dramatic swings in approval, Trump’s numbers have fallen to levels rarely seen since the advent of modern polling.
The discussion highlights that, unlike in the past when voters from the opposing party could be persuaded to support a president during a so-called honeymoon period, today’s electorate is far more rigid, with out-party approval rarely exceeding 5%.
On specific issues, Trump’s initial strength on immigration and deportations has eroded, with the Republican Party losing its previous lead in public trust on these matters. This trend is not solely attributable to Trump’s overall decline but also reflects a broader drop in confidence among Republican voters. Notably, a significant portion of Republicans who disapprove of Trump’s performance still intend to vote for the party in congressional elections, suggesting a disconnect between presidential approval and down-ballot loyalty.
Further analysis reveals that Trump’s approval among non-MAGA Republicans has deteriorated sharply, diverging from the stable support he retains among self-identified MAGA Republicans. This internal party shift is a major factor in his overall decline, underscoring the evolving dynamics within the Republican base.
LINKS
- G. Elliott Morris's website with polling and political analysis.
- Subscription link for Paul Krugman's Substack newsletter.
- Paul Krugman's Bluesky social media profile.