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SUMMARY
Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris discuss the latest midterm election forecasts, highlighting a strong Democratic advantage in the House and a tossup scenario in the Senate. Their conversation covers the impacts of gerrymandering, candidate recruitment, and structural challenges within the Senate map.
MAIN POINTS
- The Strength in Numbers model gives Democrats an 87% chance to win the House and a 54% chance to win the Senate.
- Gerrymandering is estimated to cost Democrats five or six House seats, especially in Texas and several southern states.
- Democrats are projected to win an average of 231 House seats, but this could be higher without mid-decade redistricting.
- Democrats are favored to win the North Carolina Senate seat but need to flip three more to secure a majority.
- Potential Senate pickups for Democrats include Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio, while Michigan remains a key seat to defend.
- Structural Senate disadvantages for Democrats include the small number of seats up for election and disproportionate representation favoring Republicans.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
The latest midterm forecast from the Strength in Numbers model, as discussed by Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris, indicates a notably strong position for Democrats in the House of Representatives. The model assigns Democrats an 87% probability of winning control, requiring only three additional seats to reach the majority threshold of 218.
This projection accounts for significant gerrymandering, particularly in Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida, which collectively cost Democrats an estimated five to six seats. Without these partisan redistricting efforts, the Democratic odds would rise to approximately 95-96%, and their expected seat count would increase from 231 to around 237. The model also notes that Democrats currently need about a 3.5 percentage point advantage in the national popular vote to secure the House, a figure slightly lower than previous cycles due to strong candidate recruitment and favorable polling in competitive districts.
In contrast, the Senate landscape is far less certain, with Democrats holding a 54% chance of gaining control. They currently have 47 seats and must win four additional contests to reach a majority. The North Carolina race is highlighted as a likely Democratic pickup, with former Governor Roy Cooper running against the Republican National Committee chair, Michael Wheatley.
Other potential gains include seats in Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio, though data in some states, such as Maine, remains limited. The structural challenges facing Democrats in the Senate are significant: only a third of seats are up for election, and the distribution of Senate representation disproportionately benefits less populous, typically Republican-leaning states. As a result, Democrats must win a high percentage of the competitive seats, and even minor polling errors or shifts could alter the balance.
The discussion also touches on the importance of defending the Michigan seat and the possibility that current polling may underestimate Democratic performance in some races.
LINKS
- G. Elliott Morris's website with political analysis and data.
- Subscription page for Paul Krugman's Substack newsletter.
- Paul Krugman's profile on Bluesky social platform.