SMCI, COREWEAVE, LUMENTUM EARNINGS + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja and guest Jason provide comprehensive coverage of major semiconductor earnings, including SMCI, Coreweave, and Lumentum, alongside a detailed technical analysis of leading tech and AI stocks. The discussion spans earnings reactions, sector rotations, and actionable trading strategies, with a focus on market structure, short interest dynamics, and the evolving AI infrastructure landscape.

MAIN POINTS

• SMCI, Coreweave, and Lumentum are highlighted as key earnings after the bell, with market focus on their growth and profitability. [1:00]
• OpenAI executive departures, Uber's sale of Serve Robotics, and oil price volatility are discussed as macro factors affecting sentiment. [5:00]
• Lumentum's earnings preview centers on AI optics demand, margin sustainability, and recent volatility in the photonics sector. [7:01]
• Coreweave's capital expenditure and backlog are analyzed, with attention to the company's growth trajectory and compute infrastructure narrative. [9:02]
• SMCI's margin expansion and record order backlog are noted, with implications for Dell, HP, and the broader server market. [10:00]
• Market closes with Zeta achieving a strong breakout, while Coreweave and other semis await earnings releases. [13:01]
• Lumentum reports a double beat on EPS and revenue, but market reaction is muted due to high valuation and modest margin improvement. [17:00]
• SMCI delivers a significant beat and raises full-year guidance by $20 billion, boosting related stocks like Dell and HP. [19:00]
• Coreweave beats on EPS and revenue, but initial stock drop is attributed to a smaller-than-expected backlog increase, later clarified by management. [24:00]
• Coreweave's clarification about $25 billion in new commitments not yet included in backlog leads to a sharp reversal and stock rally. [29:00]
• Strong earnings from Coreweave and other NeoCloud names drive sector-wide optimism, with attention on upcoming Nebius results. [31:01]
• Sell-side analysis affirms Coreweave's critical role in AI infrastructure, while questions remain about profitability and insider selling. [35:01]
• SMCI's guidance and margin expansion are identified as key drivers for its post-earnings surge, with broader implications for the AI supply chain. [39:01]
• Coreweave's stock breaks above $100, reflecting market confidence ahead of CPI and Nebius earnings. [43:00]
• Technical Tuesday segment begins, with Jason joining post-childbirth to discuss market structure and trading psychology. [45:00]
• Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ suggests ongoing breakouts, with CPI seen as a pivotal catalyst for market direction. [51:00]
• Trading discipline and the importance of reacting to triggers rather than anticipating moves are emphasized during technical breakdowns. [56:01]
• Micron and Nvidia are mapped for potential momentum trades, with key resistance and support levels outlined for active traders. [1:04:03]
• Discussion shifts to AI, optics, and memory stocks, highlighting recent volatility and the opportunities for short-term traders. [1:11:01]
• Palantir and defense stocks are analyzed for reversal setups, with technical patterns indicating potential for further gains. [1:14:00]
• Microsoft and other Mag 7 stocks are reviewed, with recommendations to manage leverage and watch for pullbacks after strong rallies. [1:21:00]
• Tesla, Rocket Lab, and other high-beta names are assessed for technical reversals and potential breakout trades. [1:27:03]
• AMD, Intel, and other semiconductors are flagged as consolidating, with traders advised to await clear breakouts or breakdowns. [1:38:01]
• Meta, Amazon, and major software names are evaluated for accumulation phases and long-term support levels. [1:44:03]
• Audience requests cover fintech, energy, and optics stocks, with technical setups and risk management strategies discussed. [1:54:01]
• Broadcom, Intel, and other chipmakers are highlighted for potential squeezes and bottoming processes amid sector rotation. [2:11:02]
• Bitcoin and Ethereum are analyzed for long-term accumulation, with technicals suggesting a multi-year consolidation phase. [2:27:03]
• Rivian and other EV names are discussed as long-term plays, with focus on technology licensing and survival through product ramps. [2:36:01]
• Cybersecurity and networking stocks are identified as momentum leaders, with sector-wide breakouts and valuation concerns noted. [2:42:00]
• The episode concludes with personal updates, podcast promotion, and reflections on trading discipline and market cycles. [2:47:06]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The session opens with a focus on the semiconductor sector, as SMCI, Coreweave, and Lumentum are set to report earnings after the market close. These companies are positioned at the heart of the AI infrastructure buildout, and the market’s attention is fixed on their ability to sustain growth, expand margins, and manage capital expenditures. The discussion contextualizes recent volatility, noting that many of these stocks have experienced sharp drawdowns since their July highs, driven by broader liquidation events and shifting sentiment.

Lumentum’s preview centers on the sustainability of AI optics demand and the ability to maintain high operating margins amid a rapidly scaling industry. The company’s year-over-year revenue doubling underscores robust demand, but the key question remains whether margins in the 35–45% range are achievable as the business matures. The photonics sector’s volatility is highlighted, with Lumentum’s stock history of double-digit moves on earnings and a current implied volatility of 12% reflecting market uncertainty.

Coreweave’s earnings preview is framed by its aggressive capital expenditure, with $30–35 billion in annual capex aimed at capturing future AI compute demand. The company’s backlog, previously at $99 billion, is a focal point for investors seeking evidence of sustained growth. The narrative emphasizes Coreweave’s role as a NeoCloud provider, aiming to serve the surging demand for AI compute as articulated by Nvidia’s $500 billion investment plans.

However, the market remains cautious about the efficiency of converting capex into revenue and the company’s path to profitability.

SMCI is recognized for its impressive margin expansion, having doubled gross margins from 8% to 17% in recent quarters. The sustainability of these margins and the impact of regulatory risks, particularly related to China, are debated. SMCI’s record order backlog and its influence on peers like Dell and HP are noted, with anticipation that strong results could lift the entire server ecosystem.

As the market closes, Zeta achieves a breakout above $29, reflecting renewed momentum in the software sector. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for the release of earnings from Coreweave and other semiconductor names. Lumentum reports a double beat on both EPS and revenue, with EPS up 267% and revenue up 109% year-over-year. Despite these strong numbers, the market’s reaction is subdued, likely due to the company’s high valuation and only modest improvement in operating margins.

SMCI delivers a standout quarter, beating EPS expectations by 77% and raising its full-year revenue guidance by $20 billion, from $52 billion to $72 billion. This guidance upgrade is seen as a bullish signal for Nvidia and other AI supply chain participants, as it implies robust demand for GPUs and server infrastructure. The stock rallies 8–10% after hours, with positive spillover effects for Dell, HP, and related names.

Coreweave’s results initially disappoint, as the reported backlog increases only modestly to $104 billion. However, management clarifies that an additional $25 billion in new customer commitments, already secured in early Q3, are not yet included in the backlog due to supply constraints. This clarification triggers a sharp reversal, with the stock rallying over 10% after hours.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin of 59% exceeds expectations, and while it remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, the trajectory toward profitability is evident. The discussion highlights the importance of backlog growth as a leading indicator for the NeoCloud sector, with implications for peers like Nebius and Iran.

Sell-side analysis affirms Coreweave’s critical role in the AI infrastructure stack, serving as a key contractor for hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft. The conversation addresses ongoing concerns about profitability, capital intensity, and insider selling, but concludes that the company’s execution and growth metrics remain strong. SMCI’s guidance and margin expansion are similarly identified as key drivers for its post-earnings surge, reinforcing the bullish narrative for the broader AI ecosystem.

Technical Tuesday marks a shift to detailed technical analysis, with Jason joining the session after recently welcoming a new child. The discussion opens with a review of SPY and QQQ, both of which are in active breakouts. The upcoming CPI report is identified as a pivotal catalyst, with potential to determine whether the market continues higher or consolidates.

The importance of trading discipline is emphasized, with a focus on reacting to confirmed triggers rather than anticipating moves during periods of consolidation.

Micron and Nvidia are mapped for potential momentum trades, with key resistance and support levels outlined. The analysis suggests that a break above certain thresholds could trigger short-covering rallies, while failure to hold support could result in sharp pullbacks. The conversation extends to AI, optics, and memory stocks, noting recent volatility and the opportunities this creates for short-term traders.

The importance of understanding sector rotations and the impact of short interest is underscored, particularly in the context of heavily shorted names like Nebius and Coreweave.

Palantir and defense stocks are analyzed for reversal setups, with technical patterns indicating potential for further gains. The discussion covers a wide range of audience-requested tickers, including fintech, energy, and optics stocks, with technical setups and risk management strategies discussed in detail. Microsoft and other Mag 7 stocks are reviewed, with recommendations to manage leverage and watch for pullbacks after strong rallies.

Tesla, Rocket Lab, and other high-beta names are assessed for technical reversals and potential breakout trades. AMD, Intel, and other semiconductors are flagged as consolidating, with traders advised to await clear breakouts or breakdowns. Meta, Amazon, and major software names are evaluated for accumulation phases and long-term support levels.

The session concludes with a look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which are seen as entering multi-year consolidation phases. The technicals suggest that while further downside is possible, the risk-reward for long-term accumulation is improving. Rivian and other EV names are discussed as long-term plays, with a focus on technology licensing and the importance of surviving through product ramps.

Cybersecurity and networking stocks are identified as momentum leaders, with sector-wide breakouts and valuation concerns noted. The conversation highlights the importance of having a trading plan and the risks of chasing momentum without a clear strategy. The episode wraps up with personal updates, podcast promotion, and reflections on trading discipline and market cycles, reinforcing the value of adaptability and continuous learning in navigating complex market environments.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's official Twitter/X profile for market updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for in-depth equity research and analysis.
• Free news terminal and open-source market data platform referenced for earnings information.

KEYWORDS