NVIDIA & GOOGLE HIT ALL TIME HIGHS, AMKR, CADENCE, CELESTICA EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja provides a comprehensive analysis of a landmark trading day as Nvidia and Google both hit all-time highs, with Nvidia surpassing a $5.3 trillion market cap. The episode covers major earnings reports from Amkor, Cadence, Celestica, and other key players, alongside broader market trends and sector-specific developments.

MAIN POINTS

• Nvidia and Google hit all-time highs, driving the S&P 500 to a new record, with Nvidia reaching a $5.25 trillion valuation and Google at $4.2 trillion. [1:02]
• Semiconductor sector shows mixed performance as SMH nearly achieves a 19-day green streak, while individual names like Rambus drop sharply ahead of earnings. [4:01]
• Markets largely ignore rising oil prices and geopolitical headlines, focusing instead on robust S&P 500 earnings growth and expanding profit margins. [6:01]
• Rare earth and AI infrastructure stocks rally after the U.S. signals national security status for AI infrastructure, with XIE surging post-IPO and Amazon holding a significant stake. [8:02]
• Earnings anticipation builds for Amkor, Cadence, Rambus, Celestica, and Public Storage, as Nvidia's exceptional growth and profitability become a focal point for investors. [11:00]
• Post-market earnings reactions are volatile, with Cadence initially spiking then dropping, Amkor swinging from deep losses to recovery, and Bed Bath & Beyond surging on improved results. [15:00]
• Amkor delivers a triple beat on earnings and guidance but faces a sharp selloff due to its recent rapid stock appreciation, reflecting high market expectations. [20:02]
• Sanmina, Cadence, and Amkor emerge as post-earnings winners, while Celestica and Rambus experience knee-jerk declines despite strong results and guidance. [27:01]
• Celestica's stock drops after hours despite beating on all major guidance metrics, attributed to its significant year-to-date gains and possible profit-taking. [33:00]
• Earnings beats are widespread across tech and infrastructure names, but price action remains subdued or negative for many, indicating high expectations and possible overpricing. [38:00]
• Jury selection begins in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, with Musk seeking $134 billion in damages and the removal of OpenAI leadership. [43:01]
• Steel producer Nucor posts strong earnings, highlighting the importance of materials in AI infrastructure and data center construction amid a broader industrial rally. [47:02]
• Market strategists discuss the resilience of equities amid geopolitical risks, the rise of AI-driven productivity, and the merits of diversified portfolio allocations. [53:01]
• Poet Technologies suffers a major decline after a canceled order from Marvell, raising questions about its technology and management's handling of sensitive information. [58:00]
• Discussion shifts to the importance of AI infrastructure exposure for stock selection, with skepticism toward non-AI names and criticism of Robinhood's Cortex AI product. [1:05:02]
• Preview of upcoming earnings from major companies, including Spotify, Coca-Cola, UPS, and Robinhood, with continued focus on tech and AI-related developments. [1:14:01]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session was marked by historic milestones as both Nvidia and Google reached new all-time highs, reflecting ongoing investor enthusiasm for large-cap technology and semiconductor firms. Nvidia's market capitalization soared to $5.3 trillion, with its share price peaking at $216.80 during the session and closing at $216.61, up 4% for the day. Google also set a record, closing at $350, and both companies' performances were instrumental in propelling the S&P 500 to a fresh high.

The session's narrative was dominated by these two giants, whose growth trajectories and earnings prospects have captured market attention.

The broader semiconductor sector displayed mixed results. While Nvidia and Micron posted strong gains, other names like Rambus experienced significant declines, dropping 10% ahead of earnings despite being up 43% year-to-date. The SMH ETF nearly achieved a 19-day consecutive green streak, underscoring the sector's overall strength, but ultimately fell short as some chip stocks paused after substantial rallies.

This divergence highlights the market's tendency to rotate capital among leading names, with profit-taking in previously high-flying stocks such as AMD, ARM, and Marvell, which had already appreciated significantly earlier in the year.

Earnings season intensified with after-hours reports from Amkor, Cadence, Celestica, Rambus, and Public Storage. Amkor delivered a 'triple beat,' surpassing expectations on revenue, earnings per share, and guidance. Net sales reached $1.68 billion, EPS came in at $0.33, and guidance for the next quarter was raised to $1.75–1.85 billion.

Despite these strong results, Amkor's stock initially dropped as much as 10% after hours before recovering, a reaction attributed to its rapid appreciation in the preceding weeks. This pattern of strong earnings met with tepid or negative price action was seen across several names, suggesting that high expectations and recent rallies had left little room for upside surprises.

Cadence reported EPS of $1.96 (up 25% year-over-year) and revenue of $1.47 billion (up 19%), both exceeding consensus estimates. However, the stock fell after hours, reflecting the market's demand for not just beats, but exceptional outperformance relative to already elevated expectations. Celestica, another closely watched semiconductor and manufacturing name, posted EPS of $2.16 (up 80% year-over-year) and revenue of $4.04 billion (up 53%), with forward guidance also surpassing analyst forecasts.

Despite this, its shares dropped as much as 10% after hours, a move attributed to its 40% year-to-date gain and over 400% appreciation in the past year, prompting profit-taking and concerns about valuation.

The volatility extended to other sectors as well. Bed Bath & Beyond, once a meme stock, surged 18% after reporting its first revenue growth in 19 quarters, while Lending Club and Sanmina both posted strong beats and saw double-digit after-hours gains. Public Storage also exceeded expectations, with EPS up 32% and revenue up nearly 3%, resulting in a positive after-hours reaction.

The pattern across these reports was clear: companies delivering robust growth and guidance often faced muted or negative stock responses if their recent price performance had already priced in perfection.

Macro themes played a significant role in shaping market sentiment. Despite rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, investors largely shrugged off these risks, focusing instead on the strong earnings momentum among S&P 500 constituents. The 12-month forward and trailing profit margins for the S&P 500 continued to rise, reinforcing the narrative that corporate America is delivering on growth and profitability, justifying premium valuations for leading firms.

AI infrastructure and related supply chain plays remained in focus. The U.S. government's invocation of the Defense Production Act to classify AI infrastructure as a national security priority provided a tailwind for rare earth and critical materials stocks. XIE, a nuclear energy company with Amazon as a major stakeholder, surged 21% following its IPO, reflecting investor appetite for companies positioned to benefit from the AI and data center buildout.

Steel producer Nucor also reported strong earnings, underscoring the importance of foundational materials in the ongoing expansion of data center capacity.

The episode also covered high-profile legal and corporate governance developments. Jury selection began in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Greg Brockman, with Musk seeking $134 billion in damages and the removal of OpenAI's leadership. The case centers on allegations that OpenAI's transition from a nonprofit to a for-profit structure violated its original charitable trust, and that Musk's early contributions were leveraged to build the company into an $800 billion enterprise.

The trial is expected to be a major tech industry event throughout the summer.

Market strategists discussed the resilience of equities in the face of geopolitical risks, the positive impact of AI on productivity, and the merits of diversified portfolio allocations. The so-called 'sleep like a baby' portfolio—an equal weight mix of stocks, bonds, cash, and commodities—was highlighted for its strong performance, with gold and energy serving as effective hedges alongside technology exposure. The interplay between technology and energy sectors was noted as both have delivered strong returns, a dynamic further amplified by AI-driven demand.

The episode also addressed the challenges facing companies that are not directly tied to the AI infrastructure narrative. Robinhood's Cortex AI product was criticized for its lack of functionality and inability to deliver on its promise as a financial assistant, underscoring the difficulty of translating AI hype into meaningful product improvements. The discussion emphasized that only companies with genuine exposure to AI infrastructure or data center supply chains are likely to sustain investor interest, while others may struggle to justify premium valuations.

Finally, the session previewed upcoming earnings from major firms such as Spotify, Coca-Cola, UPS, Robinhood, and others, with continued attention on tech and AI-related developments. The market's focus remains on whether these companies can deliver the growth and profitability needed to support further gains, especially after a period of substantial appreciation across leading names.

LINKS

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• Amit Kukreja's Instagram profile

KEYWORDS