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SUMMARY
Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris discuss the latest data-driven forecasts for the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, examining the impact of gerrymandering, candidate selection, and public sentiment on party prospects. Their conversation delves into the structural challenges facing both parties, the nuances of voter attitudes, and the potential influence of campaign spending.
MAIN POINTS
- Initial forecasts give Democrats an 87% chance to win the House and a 54% chance to win the Senate.
- Gerrymandering is estimated to cost Democrats five to six House seats, with notable impacts in Texas, Florida, and several Southern states.
- Polling shows little statistical difference between Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, challenging pundit assumptions about ideological positioning.
- Trump's approval rating has reached historic lows, comparable to Nixon during Watergate and Bush during the Iraq War, despite persistent partisan polarization.
- State-level attitudes on deportations are estimated using multi-level regression and poststratification, revealing higher support in states with fewer immigrants.
- Historical trends indicate the party out of power typically gains one to two points in the polls as the midterms approach, influencing forecast probabilities.
- Changes in gas prices can affect presidential approval ratings, but improvements in economic indicators do not always translate to higher approval for incumbents.
- Back-testing the forecast model suggests Democrats are more strongly positioned for a 'wave' election than in 2018, with a high probability of taking the House and a competitive Senate race.
- Campaign spending, especially in primaries, can significantly influence outcomes, with billionaire spending posing ongoing concerns for electoral fairness.
DETAILED ANALYSIS
The conversation between Paul Krugman and G. Elliott Morris centers on the latest quantitative forecasts for the U.S. midterm elections, with a particular focus on the structural and demographic factors shaping the political landscape. According to Morris, the Strength in Numbers model currently projects Democrats as strong favorites to regain control of the House, assigning them an 87% probability, while the Senate remains a toss-up at 54%.
These probabilities are contextualized by the ongoing effects of gerrymandering, which is estimated to cost Democrats five or six House seats, particularly in states like Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama. Some of these losses are partially offset by favorable redistricting outcomes for Democrats in California and Utah.
Morris explains that, absent gerrymandering, Democratic odds for the House would rise to 95–96%, with an average seat count increasing from 231 to approximately 237. The model also incorporates the need for Democrats to secure a three-and-a-half percentage point advantage in the national popular vote to overcome structural disadvantages. Strong candidate recruitment and robust fundraising in competitive districts have further improved Democratic prospects.
The Senate presents a more complex challenge due to its structure, with only a third of seats up for election and each state, regardless of population, having equal representation. Democrats are favored in North Carolina, where Roy Cooper is running against Republican Michael Wheatley, but must also defend Michigan and target toss-up races in Maine, Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. The lack of comprehensive data in some states, such as Maine, adds to the uncertainty.
The conversation also highlights the misconception that more progressive candidates are inherently less electable; Morris points to polling data in Michigan showing negligible differences between the prospects of Abdul Elsa and Haley Stevens, despite pundit concerns about ideological extremism.
Krugman and Morris discuss the broader context of public opinion, noting that Trump’s approval ratings have reached historic lows, with net disapproval approaching -25%. This decline is attributed in part to the fallout from the Iran conflict and is notable given the high degree of partisan polarization in contemporary American politics. Historically, out-party approval for presidents has plummeted, making it difficult for any president to achieve high overall approval ratings.
Interestingly, even as Trump’s approval erodes, many self-identified Republicans who disapprove of his performance remain loyal to the party on the generic ballot, a phenomenon mirrored in Democratic support during periods of Biden’s unpopularity.
The analysis also explores regional attitudes toward immigration and deportations, using advanced statistical modeling to estimate state-level approval. The findings suggest that support for strict immigration policies is highest in states with minimal immigrant populations, consistent with prior research indicating that proximity to immigrants tends to reduce opposition. This dynamic is reflected in the so-called 'ice belt' stretching from Louisiana to West Virginia.
Looking ahead, Morris emphasizes that while current forecasts are robust, they account for historical variability and the potential for late shifts in voter sentiment. Typically, the party out of power gains one to two points in the generic ballot as the election nears, a trend incorporated into the model’s confidence intervals. Sudden changes in economic indicators, such as a sharp drop in gas prices, can influence presidential approval but often have limited immediate impact on broader electoral outcomes due to the persistence of negative public perceptions formed during periods of hardship.
Back-testing the forecasting model against previous cycles, such as 2018, suggests that Democrats are in a stronger position now than they were then, with a high probability of taking the House and a realistic chance at the Senate. However, the conversation concludes with a cautionary note regarding the influence of campaign spending. While partisan identity tends to dominate general elections, primary contests remain highly susceptible to large infusions of money, with billionaire donors like Elon Musk potentially able to sway outcomes in key races.
The Supreme Court’s reluctance to address campaign finance reform leaves this as an ongoing concern for electoral integrity.
LINKS
- G. Elliott Morris's personal website and blog.
- Fifty Plus One, a data-driven political forecasting publication.
- Paul Krugman's YouTube channel for interviews and commentary.