ANOTHER OPENAI EXEC LEAVES, ZOOM & INTUIT EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja and guest Jason provided in-depth coverage of major market headlines, including the departure of OpenAI's head of data centers, earnings reactions from Zoom and Intuit, and a comprehensive technical analysis of leading equities and cryptocurrencies. The discussion highlighted shifting market sentiment, the impact of macroeconomic events, and the evolving landscape for AI, energy, and technology sectors.

MAIN POINTS

• Market opens with notable moves in Robinhood, Bloom, and S&P 500, with anticipation around upcoming IPOs and earnings for Zoom and Intuit. [1:30]
• Amit discusses recent trades, including American Airlines and Vistra, and highlights insider buying and sector momentum in energy. [6:00]
• News breaks of OpenAI's head of data centers, Chris Malone, leaving the company, adding to a string of executive departures ahead of a potential IPO. [7:01]
• Anthropic's ambitious $30 trillion TAM projection for its IPO is discussed, alongside speculation about a potential US-Iran ceasefire and its market impact. [10:01]
• Intuit's earnings are released immediately after market close, showing a sharp stock drop due to disappointing forward guidance despite revenue and EPS beats. [14:00]
• Analysis of Intuit's earnings reveals confusion over a large operating income miss, with speculation about tax-related accounting changes affecting guidance. [17:01]
• Zoom's earnings beat expectations but show limited growth, with investor focus shifting to the company's stake in Anthropic as a potential value driver. [20:00]
• SEC and other semiconductor earnings are reviewed, with strong guidance and after-hours moves, while Intuit's stock partially recovers from its initial plunge. [24:00]
• LeBron James' financial arrangement and Canadian tariffs are briefly discussed, followed by a transition to technical analysis for major market sectors. [28:01]
• Technical analysis begins with Nvidia, focusing on support levels ahead of earnings and the statistical likelihood of a muted post-earnings move. [34:00]
• Bitcoin's technical setup is examined, with resistance at $80K and potential for a constructive pullback, while Ethereum's breakout levels are also reviewed. [41:02]
• S&P 500 analysis highlights a consolidation breakout, with key support and resistance levels identified ahead of major macroeconomic events. [48:01]
• Micron and Broadcom are analyzed, with both stocks showing consolidation and support zones, and Broadcom facing multiple headwinds including debt issuance. [56:00]
• Nebius and Rocket Lab are discussed, with technical setups indicating potential support zones and the importance of patience for optimal entry points. [1:04:00]
• Meta and Robinhood are reviewed, with Meta facing resistance and legal uncertainties, and Robinhood benefiting from crypto momentum but at a critical juncture. [1:09:00]
• Corweave and other AI infrastructure plays are examined, with emphasis on support levels and the need for a breakout to resume upward trends. [1:17:02]
• AMD and Bloom Energy are analyzed, with AMD at risk of a short squeeze and Bloom showing potential for a technical bounce if resistance is cleared. [1:24:00]
• Microsoft and Amazon are assessed, both holding key support levels and awaiting directional moves, while Google is seen as fundamentally sound but range-bound. [1:35:00]
• Discussion shifts to sector rotation, with cash flow-heavy stocks and healthcare outperforming, and the introduction of the COWZ ETF as a cash flow play. [1:45:01]
• Marvell and the upcoming earnings calendar are covered, with anticipation for Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and other major reports. [1:48:00]
• Uber's technical breakout is highlighted, with bullish sentiment supported by strong institutional buying and parallels drawn to Netflix's setup. [1:54:02]
• Macro discussion centers on the impact of corporate bond issuance, US Treasury competition, and the relationship between rates, Bitcoin, and risk assets. [1:59:00]
• Audience ticker requests are addressed, including SoFi, Intel, SMCI, SanDisk, Corning, and others, with technical levels and trade setups provided. [2:07:02]
• AI infrastructure and cloud names like Coherent and Cloudflare are analyzed, with emphasis on consolidation patterns and sector-specific catalysts. [2:25:00]
• Consumer staples and healthcare sector strength is discussed, with individual names like Celsius, Reddit, and MongoDB reviewed for technical positioning. [2:42:01]
• Energy sector overview focuses on the 'energy bottleneck' thesis, with Vistra, Talon, and Constellation Energy highlighted as key beneficiaries of data center growth. [2:55:00]
• The session concludes with a preview of upcoming webinars and the importance of monitoring macroeconomic events and sector rotations for future market direction. [3:05:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session was marked by a convergence of high-impact headlines, earnings volatility, and technical market analysis across equities and cryptocurrencies. The day began with notable moves in Robinhood, Bloom, and the S&P 500, driven by anticipation around two of the largest upcoming IPOs and the release of earnings for Zoom and Intuit. Robinhood surged over 7%, buoyed by crypto sector strength, while Bloom posted a 6% gain.

The S&P 500 recovered from early losses, reflecting a cautious optimism as investors awaited key earnings and macroeconomic developments.

Amit Kukreja detailed his trading activity, including new positions in American Airlines—taken as a play on declining oil prices and the potential for a US-Iran ceasefire—and Vistra, an energy company viewed as undervalued relative to its buyback activity and insider purchases. The discussion highlighted the strategic importance of insider buying, with Vistra's CEO and Peter Thiel both increasing their stakes, signaling confidence in the company's prospects amid a broader energy bottleneck thesis.

The session's most significant headline was the departure of Chris Malone, OpenAI's head of data centers, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. This exit adds to a series of high-profile departures from OpenAI, including the chief revenue officer and several co-founders, raising questions about organizational stability ahead of a potential IPO. The timing is notable, as OpenAI is investing heavily in data center infrastructure, with a reported trillion-dollar capex plan.

Comparisons were drawn to rival Anthropic, which has retained its founding team, suggesting a contrast in management continuity. Despite the turnover, investors appear reassured as long as key executives like Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and CFO Sarah Friar remain in place.

Anthropic's own IPO ambitions were discussed, with the company reportedly projecting a $30 trillion total addressable market (TAM)—a figure representing roughly 25% of global GDP. This aggressive estimate mirrors similar claims by SpaceX and is seen as an attempt to maximize IPO interest. The conversation also touched on geopolitical developments, including rumors of a US-Iran ceasefire, which, if confirmed, could trigger a rally in risk assets by lowering oil prices and bond yields.

Intuit's earnings release immediately after the market close triggered a dramatic reaction, with the stock plunging up to 14% within seconds. Despite beating on both revenue and EPS, forward guidance for adjusted operating income and fiscal year revenue fell short of consensus estimates. The magnitude of the operating income miss—$2 billion below expectations—led to speculation about tax-related accounting changes, particularly the inclusion of stock-based compensation in guidance for the first time.

This lack of clarity in the company's press release exacerbated market concerns, with the stock partially recovering as analysts and investors sought further explanation.

Zoom's earnings also beat expectations, but growth remained tepid, with revenue up 5% year-over-year and EPS up 1%. The company's $29 billion market cap is increasingly justified by its stake in Anthropic, rather than core business growth. The discussion noted that many investors are holding Zoom primarily for its exposure to AI, rather than for its standalone performance.

Other software-as-a-service (SaaS) names, including Salesforce and ServiceNow, were also impacted by Intuit's guidance, reflecting sector-wide sensitivity to earnings outlooks.

Technical analysis formed a substantial portion of the session, beginning with Nvidia ahead of its earnings. Support was identified at $213, with statistical analysis suggesting a low probability of a post-earnings move exceeding 5.5%, based on historical volatility. The panel discussed the merits of selling straddles or iron condors around expected ranges, given the high likelihood of muted price action.

Bitcoin's technical setup was also reviewed, with resistance at $80,000 and a constructive scenario involving a pullback to the $70,000–$75,000 range before a potential move higher. Ethereum was seen as slightly stronger, having broken through key resistance levels, with targets set at $3,200 and $3,600 based on Fibonacci retracements.

The S&P 500 was analyzed as being in a consolidation breakout, with support at 750 and resistance at 770. The importance of upcoming macroeconomic events—including Jackson Hole, PCE inflation data, and non-farm payroll revisions—was emphasized, as these are likely to dictate market direction in the near term. The conversation highlighted the interplay between technical setups and fundamental catalysts, noting that macro data often supersedes chart patterns during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Individual equities received detailed technical reviews. Micron and Broadcom were both identified as being in consolidation phases, with Broadcom facing additional headwinds from debt issuance, negative sentiment related to OpenAI, and sell-side downgrades. Nebius and Rocket Lab were discussed as high-beta plays with defined support zones, while Meta and Robinhood were seen as at critical junctures—Meta facing legal uncertainties and Robinhood benefiting from crypto sector momentum.

The analysis extended to AI infrastructure and cloud names, including Corweave, Coherent, and Cloudflare, with emphasis on the need for breakouts above resistance to resume upward trends. The panel also addressed sector rotation, noting that cash flow-heavy stocks and healthcare have outperformed in recent months, as evidenced by the performance of the COWZ ETF. This reflects a broader shift away from high-multiple growth stocks toward more stable, cash-generating businesses amid rising interest rates.

The energy sector was a focal point in the latter part of the session, with Vistra, Talon, and Constellation Energy highlighted as key beneficiaries of the data center boom. The 'energy bottleneck' thesis posits that as AI and cloud computing drive exponential demand for power, companies with exposure to nuclear and natural gas generation will be able to command premium pricing. The discussion differentiated these names from smaller, more speculative plays like Bloom Energy and FuelCell, emphasizing the importance of scale, existing contracts with major tech firms, and the structural challenges of expanding grid capacity.

The panel noted that despite their strategic importance, these energy names remain down 20% year-to-date, presenting potential value opportunities as demand for electricity continues to rise.

Throughout the session, the hosts fielded numerous audience requests for technical analysis on a wide range of tickers, including SoFi, Intel, SMCI, SanDisk, Corning, MongoDB, Salesforce, and others. Each was evaluated for support and resistance levels, trade setups, and sector-specific catalysts. The discussion also touched on the dynamics of liquidity grabs, order spoofing, and the challenges of trading in a market characterized by frequent reversals and consolidation.

The session concluded with a preview of upcoming webinars and the importance of monitoring macroeconomic events and sector rotations. The hosts emphasized that the current market environment is defined by uncertainty, with technical setups often overridden by fundamental developments. The need for patience, discipline, and a focus on risk management was reiterated, as traders navigate a landscape shaped by earnings volatility, executive turnover in AI, and the evolving energy infrastructure required to support future technological growth.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's Twitter/X profile for market commentary and updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for in-depth stock analysis and research.
• Free news terminal for financial and market news aggregation.
• Jason's Twitter/X profile for trading insights and technical analysis.
• Registration link for Jason's upcoming trading and market analysis webinar.

KEYWORDS