MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER, GOOGLE CRUSHES THEIR EVENT, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

SUMMARY

Amit Kukreja and guest Jason provided an in-depth review of market movements, technical analysis on major stocks, and discussed Google's latest AI product launches. The session covered sector rotations, earnings reactions, and key inflection points for leading technology and semiconductor companies.

MAIN POINTS

• Markets experience volatility with initial declines, a midday rebound, and renewed selling pressure, while Google’s AI event becomes the day’s focal point. [2:00]
• Google unveils new AI-powered glasses in collaboration with Warby Parker and announces updates to its Gemini AI suite, including Gemini Spark and Gemini 3.5 Pro. [6:00]
• Massive growth in AI compute demand is highlighted, with Google reporting exponential increases in token usage and expanding partnerships in the NeoCloud sector. [10:00]
• Market closes with most major indices and stocks finishing red, though less severe than morning lows, and notable rebounds in select names like Rocket Lab and AMD. [15:00]
• Earnings season continues with strong results from Keysite Technologies and Cava, while Andrej Karpathy’s move to Anthropic is likened to a major talent acquisition in AI. [20:00]
• Cava and Red Robin report earnings beats, with Cava showing significant year-over-year revenue growth and Red Robin surprising with a strong EPS beat. [25:00]
• Google’s Gemini Omni model and image generation capabilities are discussed, with the company’s AI subscription tiers and cloud partnerships drawing attention. [30:00]
• Technical analysis segment begins, focusing on SMH (semiconductor ETF) and the exhaustion signals observed after a strong run, with implications for sector rotation. [35:00]
• SMH’s critical support and resistance levels are outlined, with institutional exhaustion and potential for a short squeeze if certain technical thresholds are crossed. [41:00]
• Market rotation is observed with profit-taking in high-flyers and money moving into previously lagging software names, while indices remain in a holding pattern ahead of Nvidia earnings. [47:00]
• Discussion on the philosophy of buying dips versus waiting for consolidation and confirmation, using Micron and other semiconductors as examples. [53:00]
• Micron’s technical setup is analyzed, emphasizing the need for sideways consolidation before considering new trades, and distinguishing between investment and trading strategies. [59:00]
• Inflection points for major stocks like Micron and Google are identified, with traders advised to wait for clear signals before entering positions. [1:05:00]
• Nvidia’s pre-earnings setup is reviewed, with upside and downside targets mapped out and the importance of momentum and short covering highlighted. [1:11:00]
• ServiceNow’s technical reversal is discussed, with key moving averages and support levels identified as prerequisites for a sustained bullish move. [1:18:00]
• Microsoft’s long-term consolidation and potential breakout levels are analyzed, with volume-at-price pockets indicating areas for rapid price movement. [1:24:00]
• Google’s seasonal strength into July is noted, with technical targets set for significant upside if the stock can break through resistance. [1:29:00]
• Meta is described as being in a resting phase, trading within a defined range, while Apple is highlighted for its ongoing strength and potential to reach new highs. [1:33:00]
• AMD’s support and resistance levels are set, with the risk of a deeper pullback if key technical thresholds are breached. [1:39:00]
• Corning’s support and resistance are mapped, with the importance of momentum and confirmation for new trades emphasized. [1:44:00]
• Rocket Lab’s consolidation and breakout targets are discussed, with the stock’s technical health contingent on holding key support levels. [1:49:00]
• Tesla’s pivotal technical level at 415 is identified, with the stock’s long-term chart showing potential for further gains if support holds. [1:53:00]
• ASTS’s resistance and support levels are analyzed, with the potential for a significant squeeze if momentum builds above key thresholds. [1:57:00]
• Qualcomm’s rerating potential is discussed in light of rumored data center chip developments and support levels near 188-192. [2:02:00]
• CoreWeave and other NeoCloud names are reviewed, with financing needs and supply chain constraints affecting the sector’s outlook. [2:08:00]
• Nokia’s technical setup is compared to historical base breakouts, with 16 identified as a critical inflection point for a potential rerating. [2:14:00]
• Oracle’s prospects are tempered by project delays and legacy business challenges, with support at 175-179 and resistance at 225-230. [2:18:00]
• Bitcoin’s technical structure is reviewed, with 76,000 as a key support and the potential for a move to 100,000 if consolidation holds. [2:23:00]
• Reddit and other recent IPOs are described as being in a holding pattern, with technical levels providing guidance for potential breakouts or breakdowns. [2:31:00]
• Intel’s resilience at the $100 level is noted, with upside targets set if resistance at 122 is cleared, and downside risk if support fails. [2:38:00]
• Redwire’s price action is linked to insider selling, with breakout potential above 16 and resistance at 19 if selling pressure abates. [2:45:00]
• Natural gas and energy plays are discussed as hedges, with technical resistance and support levels mapped for names like NextDecade and VG. [2:56:00]
• Bitcoin miners and NeoClouds are contrasted, with the latter seen as having more sustainable business models due to industry relationships and backlog dynamics. [3:06:00]
• Honeywell is highlighted as an investable name with support at 210 and accumulation potential ahead of a planned spin-off. [3:16:00]
• Synaptics’ reversal and partnership with Google are noted as catalysts for a potential move to $200, with the edge AI theme gaining traction. [3:28:00]
• The session concludes with advice to size down trades, take profits earlier, and remain cautious in a transitional market environment. [3:38:00]

DETAILED ANALYSIS

The trading session opened with notable volatility as markets swung between red and green, ultimately closing with losses that were less severe than the morning’s lows. This choppy action was attributed to sector rotations, profit-taking, and anticipation ahead of major earnings, particularly Nvidia’s upcoming report. Google’s AI event dominated headlines, with the company unveiling new AI-powered glasses in partnership with Warby Parker, updates to the Gemini AI suite, and the introduction of Gemini Spark and Gemini 3.5 Pro.

These developments underscored Google’s aggressive push into AI, leveraging its vast ecosystem and cloud infrastructure to drive adoption and reduce costs through scale. The market’s muted reaction to Google’s announcements was attributed to the stock’s proximity to all-time highs and the perception that much of the AI growth narrative was already priced in.

The exponential growth in AI compute demand was a recurring theme, with Google reporting a surge from 9.7 trillion tokens per month in May 2024 to 3.2 quadrillion projected for 2026, representing a 700% year-over-year increase. This surge has fueled the rise of NeoCloud providers and intensified competition among hyperscalers, with companies like Blackstone partnering with Google to expand cloud infrastructure. The demand for compute has also benefited semiconductor and memory companies, though the sector showed signs of exhaustion after a prolonged rally.

Technical analysis formed the core of the discussion, with a detailed review of key ETFs and individual stocks. SMH, the semiconductor ETF, was highlighted for its institutional exhaustion signal, with support at 549 and resistance at 566.79. The analysis suggested that a break above resistance could trigger a short squeeze, while a failure to hold support might lead to a more significant pullback.

However, the consensus was that a major breakdown was unlikely ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with most moves characterized as routine profit-taking after a strong run.

Sector rotation was evident as money flowed out of high-flying semiconductors and into previously lagging software names. ServiceNow, for example, was identified as having completed a bearish-to-bullish reversal, with key moving averages providing support for a potential sustained move higher. Microsoft was described as being in a long-term consolidation phase, with a breakout above 433 seen as a catalyst for rapid price appreciation.

Google’s chart showed no signs of exhaustion, and the stock was expected to benefit from seasonal strength into July, with technical targets set at 425 and 470 if resistance at 400 could be cleared.

Meta was characterized as being in a resting phase, trading within a defined range between 635 and 581, while Apple continued to press all-time highs with measured moves targeting 318 to 330. AMD’s technical setup suggested near-term support at 378, with the risk of a deeper pullback to the 300s if that level failed. The discussion emphasized the importance of waiting for consolidation and confirmation before entering new trades, particularly in high-beta names that had already experienced significant rallies.

The philosophy of buying dips versus waiting for confirmation was explored in depth, using Micron as a case study. The analysis distinguished between investment and trading approaches, noting that investors with idle cash might be comfortable accumulating during extended consolidations, while traders should wait for clear inflection points to maximize capital efficiency. For Micron, the key level was identified at 770, with a break above signaling a potential short-covering rally.

Nvidia’s pre-earnings setup was mapped out with upside targets at 236 to 241 and downside risk to the 190s if support failed. The importance of momentum and short covering was highlighted, with the potential for rapid moves in either direction depending on the earnings outcome. The session also covered a broad range of other stocks, including Tesla, which was seen as building towards a breakout above 415, and ASTS, which was poised for a significant squeeze if momentum built above 107.

Qualcomm was discussed in the context of its rumored data center chip developments, with support near 188-192 and the potential for a rerating if new products materialize. CoreWeave and other NeoCloud names were reviewed, with financing needs and supply chain constraints noted as challenges for the sector. Nokia’s technical setup was compared to historical base breakouts, with 16 identified as a critical inflection point for a potential rerating.

Oracle’s prospects were tempered by project delays and legacy business challenges, while Bitcoin’s technical structure suggested a move to 100,000 was possible if consolidation held above 76,000. The session also addressed the contrasting business models of Bitcoin miners and NeoClouds, with the latter seen as having more sustainable industry relationships and backlog dynamics.

Energy and natural gas plays were discussed as potential hedges, with technical resistance and support levels mapped for names like NextDecade and VG. Honeywell was highlighted as an investable name with support at 210 and accumulation potential ahead of a planned spin-off. Synaptics’ partnership with Google was noted as a catalyst for a potential move to $200, with the edge AI theme gaining traction.

Throughout the session, the importance of patience, risk management, and waiting for clear technical signals was emphasized. The market was described as being in a transitional phase, with traders advised to size down positions, take profits earlier, and remain cautious until new trends emerged. The discussion concluded with a reminder that opportunities remained abundant, but discipline and adaptability would be key to navigating the current environment.

LINKS

• Amit Kukreja's Twitter/X profile for market commentary and updates.
• Amit's Deep Dives Substack for in-depth stock and market analysis.
• Information and RSVP for the Singapore meetup.

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